The model favours an away win for Telavi, with a 54% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Merani Martvili win. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.8% probability. Merani Martvili, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Telavi, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 98.5%, Under 5.5 at 95.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.1%, Away +2 handicap at 93.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.5% and Under 4.5 at 88.9%. Merani Martvili’s recent form shows two straight defeats, while Telavi comes off a loss as well, both ending 1-2. The overall shape suggests a low-scoring affair with Telavi edging the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Merani Martvili win
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Telavi win
51.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.20
1.33
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.36
1.25
1.33
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.06
0.81
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.31
0.56
0.89
1.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1
11.9%
0-2
10.4%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
6.4%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
5.4%
Merani Martvili goals ↓
Telavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
12%
10%
5.5%
2.2%
1
6.4%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
3.4%
5.4%
4.3%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Merani Martvili goals (down), columns = Telavi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Merani Martvili is 1.50 points worse than Telavi in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Merani Martvili is 0.38 goals worse than Telavi in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Merani Martvili is 1.00 goals worse than Telavi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 0.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Merani Martvili or Draw
48.1%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Merani Martvili + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili or Telavi
72.4%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Merani Martvili + Telavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Telavi
79.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Draw + Telavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Merani Martvili, so a minus line means Merani Martvili give that many goals of a start and Telavi receive them. At -1, Merani Martvili must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Merani Martvili win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili -2
1.8%
Draw -2
5.4%
Telavi +2
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili -1
7.2%
Draw -1
13.2%
Telavi +1
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili +1
48.1%
Draw +1
23.9%
Telavi -1
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Merani Martvili)
Merani Martvili +2
72.0%
Draw +2
16.3%
Telavi -2
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.56
0.58
0.67
0.15
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.75
0.22
0.56
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.67
0.67
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.23
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.17
0.17
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti