Meshakhte’s defensive record at home is worrying, conceding an average of 2.5 goals while scoring only 0.75 against stronger opponents. Rustavi, on the other hand, has been prolific on the road, scoring 2.5 and keeping just 0.5 against weaker sides. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 53 % chance, a draw 30 %, and a home win 17 %. The expected total goals hover around 2.1, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Rustavi, with a 16.6 % probability. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring, reflected in the high probability of under-7.5 goals (99.9 %) and a host of under-corners selections. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Under 11.5 corners (99.5 %), Under 10.5 corners (98.6 %), Under 5.5 (98.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (97.0 %), and Under 9.5 corners (96.8 %). Meshakhte’s recent form has been a run of four losses, while Rustavi has won three straight games.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Meshakhte win
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rustavi win
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Meshakhte
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.07
1.13
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.67
2.00
0.47
1.87
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.89
0.71
1.93
0.50
1.86
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.1%
Under 1.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.9%
Under 2.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.6%
Under 3.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.6%
No
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
17.1%
0-0
14.4%
1-1
12.9%
0-2
12.6%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.4%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
3.8%
Meshakhte goals ↓
Rustavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
17%
13%
5.8%
2.0%
1
7.4%
13%
8.1%
3.7%
1.3%
2
2.7%
3.8%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
3
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Meshakhte goals (down), columns = Rustavi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Meshakhte is 1.88 points worse than Rustavi in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Meshakhte is 0.75 goals worse than Rustavi in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Meshakhte is 1.25 goals worse than Rustavi in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Meshakhte
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rustavi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Meshakhte
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
5.0
-
5.0
0.7
0.0
1.2
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Meshakhte or Draw
46.5%
Avg Implied -
16%
30%
54%
covers Meshakhte + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte or Rustavi
69.8%
Avg Implied -
16%
30%
54%
covers Meshakhte + Rustavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rustavi
83.8%
Avg Implied -
16%
30%
54%
covers Draw + Rustavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Meshakhte, so a minus line means Meshakhte give that many goals of a start and Rustavi receive them. At -1, Meshakhte must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Meshakhte win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte -2
0.9%
Draw -2
3.6%
Rustavi +2
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte -1
4.5%
Draw -1
11.7%
Rustavi +1
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte +1
46.5%
Draw +1
26.5%
Rustavi -1
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte +2
72.9%
Draw +2
16.7%
Rustavi -2
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Meshakhte
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.33
0.47
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
1.33
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.17
0.93
0.13
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.18
0.86
0.14
0.86
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Meshakhte
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.07
0.33
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
0.54
1.07
0.36
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Meshakhte and Rustavi have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Meshakhte and Rustavi have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Meshakhte and Rustavi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Meshakhte and Rustavi have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Gagra
Dila
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri