Meshakhte’s recent slump - four straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Dinamo Batumi - contrasts sharply with Saburtalo’s comparatively better away form, scoring 1.75 goals per game and conceding only 0.25 against weaker opponents. The model therefore names an away win as the favourite, with a 72% chance, a draw at 20% and a home win at 8%. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Saburtalo, carrying a 15.7% probability.
Meshakhte averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded at home against stronger teams, while Saburtalo’s away attack is robust and its defence tight. The model’s suggested picks all favour a low-scoring affair: Home under 3.5 goals99.8%, Under 7.599.5%, Under 11.5 corners99.5%, Under 10.5 corners98.6%, Under 6.598.3%, Home under 2.5 goals98.2%, Away +2 handicap98.1% and Under 9.5 corners96.8%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Meshakhte win
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win
66.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Meshakhte
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.07
1.13
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.19
1.00
1.79
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.94
1.00
0.67
2.43
1.29
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
1.00
1.50
1.33
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.6%
Under 3.5
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.6%
No
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.2%
0-2
14.8%
1-1
10.6%
0-0
9.8%
0-3
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
1-3
5.4%
1-0
4.3%
Meshakhte goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
15%
15%
9.0%
4.1%
1
4.3%
11%
8.8%
5.4%
2.5%
2
1.6%
2.9%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
3
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Meshakhte goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Meshakhte is 0.67 points worse than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Meshakhte is 0.46 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Meshakhte is 0.33 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Meshakhte is 5.5 percentage points worse than Saburtalo in terms of average possession (50% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Meshakhte
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
For 5.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 17.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Meshakhte
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
5.0
-
5.0
0.7
0.0
1.2
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.0
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
30.0
27.0
36.0
vs Stronger (3)
7.0
4.0
10.0
2.3
1.0
3.0
22.0
8.0
36.0
vs Similar (29)
12.0
12.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.2
46.0
46.0
-
vs Weaker (18)
5.0
5.0
-
0.4
0.7
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
100%
6%
8%
4%
67%
50%
100%
% under line
50%
67%
0%
94%
92%
96%
33%
50%
0%
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.4%
Under 3.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Meshakhte or Draw
33.8%
Avg Implied -
10%
23%
66%
covers Meshakhte + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte or Saburtalo
76.6%
Avg Implied -
10%
23%
66%
covers Meshakhte + Saburtalo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Saburtalo
89.6%
Avg Implied -
10%
23%
66%
covers Draw + Saburtalo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Meshakhte, so a minus line means Meshakhte give that many goals of a start and Saburtalo receive them. At -1, Meshakhte must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Meshakhte win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte -2
0.5%
Draw -2
2.2%
Saburtalo +2
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte -1
2.7%
Draw -1
7.7%
Saburtalo +1
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte +1
33.8%
Draw +1
25.8%
Saburtalo -1
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Meshakhte)
Meshakhte +2
59.6%
Draw +2
21.0%
Saburtalo -2
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Meshakhte
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.33
0.47
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
1.33
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.62
0.19
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.38
0.56
0.00
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Meshakhte
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.56
0.81
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
0.44
0.67
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.64
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Meshakhte's squad is €5m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€2m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Meshakhte's attack is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Meshakhte and Saburtalo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Meshakhte's defence is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
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Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Gagra
Dila
Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri