The away team, Samgurali, is likely to emerge victorious in this match, with a 52% probability of winning. This suggests a closely contested game, with a 28% chance of a draw and just a 20% chance of a home win for Meshakhte.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, indicating a relatively low-scoring encounter. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, although this is not the most likely total number of goals.
Meshakhte have been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.23 goals and conceding 0.62 per game against opponents of similar strength. Samgurali, meanwhile, have been scoring 1.71 goals and conceding 2.29 per game on the road against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Away win, with the model also recommending the Under 3.5 goals (76.1% probability) and Over 1.5 goals (72.1% probability) selections. The home win percentage is 20%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 52%.
The win extends Meshakhte's run of inconsistent form, but it was Samgurali who ultimately took the spoils. The final score was 1-2 in favour of the away team, a result that mirrored the model's prediction. The model correctly identified Samgurali as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 52%. The model's call was correct, as Samgurali secured the away win. The model's selection to under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 76.1%, while over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 72.1%.
Meshakhte| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.13 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.73 | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.70 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 1.69 | 2.25 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 1.67 | 1.94 | 1.56 | 1.11 | 1.78 | 2.78 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.42 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Samgurali goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 12% | 10% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 13% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Meshakhte
Samgurali
Meshakhte| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (42) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (6) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (32) | 5.0 | 5.0 | - | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 5% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 100% | 95% | - | - | - |
Samgurali| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (29) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Meshakhte| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.43 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Meshakhte| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.78 | 1.17 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 99.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +17.4% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | - | +6.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 72.1% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | -1.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Meshakhte| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 1-6 | |
| 14/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/11/25 | H | 1-2 |
Samgurali| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/06/26 | A | 5-3 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 26/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |