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Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2026
Time: 11:00
Final 2-1
Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
Vs
42%
32%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Metal Kharkiv win✓ Hit
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D12L11D10W03L01L21W21W00DA·POD18/10H·VOR26/10A·UCS01/11H·CHO08/11H·MET15/11A·INH22/11H·AHR30/11A·PRO22/03H·VIK28/03A·PRY03/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.131.071.001.131.27
vs Stronger (7)0.711.570.751.000.672.33
vs Similar (23)1.221.001.181.001.251.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ChernihivChernihiv

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L11D03L10W30W11D14L40W01LA·INH02/11H·AHR08/11A·LIV12/11A·VIK23/11H·PRY29/11H·PRO09/12H·MET15/12H·YAR21/03H·LIV29/03H·BUK03/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.371.531.471.001.27
vs Stronger (9)1.001.671.252.000.801.40
vs Similar (21)1.381.241.641.271.101.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.4%
Under 1.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.9%
Under 3.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
13.0%
0-1
9.5%
2-0
8.7%
2-1 ✓
8.0%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.0%
Metal Kharkiv goals ↓
Chernihiv goals →
01234
013%9.5%5.0%1.5%0.4%
113%15%6.1%1.9%0.4%
28.7%8.0%3.7%1.1%0.3%
33.5%3.3%1.5%0.5%0.1%
41.1%1.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metal Kharkiv goals (down), columns = Chernihiv goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bukovyna
2.70
Chornomorets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.10
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
Inhulets
1.53
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Chernihiv
1.03
Vorskla Poltava
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.72
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.63
Metal Kharkiv is 0.20 points better than Chernihiv in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bukovyna
2.47
Livyi Bereh
1.67
Chornomorets
1.41
Inhulets
1.37
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
UCSA
1.00
Chernihiv
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Vorskla Poltava
0.77
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.69
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.53
Metal Kharkiv is 0.03 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chornomorets
0.69
Livyi Bereh
0.70
Bukovyna
0.70
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Inhulets
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Vorskla Poltava
1.20
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.45
Metalurh Zaporizhya
2.03
Metal Kharkiv is 0.03 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W12L10W00D02L01L00D00D00DA·POD18/10H·VOR26/10A·UCS01/11H·CHO08/11H·MET15/11A·INH22/11H·AHR30/11A·PRO22/03H·VIK28/03A·PRY03/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.530.270.530.87
vs Stronger (7)0.570.570.750.250.331.00
vs Similar (23)0.520.570.450.270.580.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ChernihivChernihiv

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D01L10W20W01L12L20W00DA·INH02/11H·AHR08/11A·LIV12/11A·VIK23/11H·PRY29/11H·PRO09/12H·MET15/12H·YAR21/03H·LIV29/03H·BUK03/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.930.670.470.80
vs Stronger (9)0.560.670.750.500.400.80
vs Similar (21)0.760.761.000.730.500.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D01L10W01L00D21W21W00DA·POD18/10H·VOR26/10A·UCS01/11H·CHO08/11H·MET15/11A·INH22/11H·AHR30/11A·PRO22/03H·VIK28/03A·PRY03/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.530.730.600.40
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.000.750.331.33
vs Similar (23)0.700.430.730.730.670.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ChernihivChernihiv

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D02L00D10W10W02L20W01LA·INH02/11H·AHR08/11A·LIV12/11A·VIK23/11H·PRY29/11H·PRO09/12H·MET15/12H·YAR21/03H·LIV29/03H·BUK03/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.600.800.530.47
vs Stronger (9)0.441.000.501.500.400.60
vs Similar (21)0.620.480.640.550.600.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (25)
€9m
CHO (21)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€4m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
YM (6)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (5)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
MK wins
1
Draws
1
CHE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Metal Kharkiv vs Chernihiv · H/A from MK
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/24HMK Vs Chernihiv1-1
21/04/24AChernihiv Vs MK2-1

Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/26APrykarpattia Vs MK0-0
28/03/26HMK Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka2-1
22/03/26AProbiy Horodenka Vs MK1-2
30/11/25HMK Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk0-1
22/11/25AInhulets Vs MK3-0
15/11/25HMK Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya1-0
08/11/25HMK Vs Chornomorets1-1
01/11/25AUCSA Vs MK2-1
26/10/25HMK Vs Vorskla Poltava1-1
18/10/25APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs MK0-2

ChernihivChernihiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/26HCHE Vs Bukovyna0-1
29/03/26HCHE Vs Livyi Bereh4-0
21/03/26HCHE Vs Yarud Mariupol'1-4
15/12/25HCHE Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya1-1
09/12/25HCHE Vs Probiy Horodenka3-0
29/11/25HCHE Vs Prykarpattia1-0
23/11/25AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs CHE3-0
12/11/25ALivyi Bereh Vs CHE1-1
08/11/25HCHE Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk0-2
02/11/25AInhulets Vs CHE1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.32
HomeDDWLW1.36
AwayWLLWD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.162.002.32
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %42%32%52%
Over 3.5 %8%4%12%
Scored1.161.081.24
Conceded1.000.921.08
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.02
HomeWDLWL1.16
AwayWLDDL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals3.023.082.96
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.201.361.04
Conceded1.821.721.92
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BukovynaBukovyna3081
87%
2.7
7421+53
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4232.50.7
-
2Livyi BerehLivyi Bereh3063
63%
2.1
5021+29
2.4
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.7
-
3ChornomoretsChornomorets2962
62%
2.1
4120+21
2.1
62%
34%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2221.40.7
-
4Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk3053
53%
1.8
3628+8
2.1
53%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.20.9
-
5InhuletsInhulets3046
40%
1.5
4132+9
2.4
70%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.1
-
6Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv3037
33%
1.2
3135-4
2.2
73%
43%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.01.2
-
7Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka3036
33%
1.2
3738-1
2.5
77%
53%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.3
-
8Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'3036
30%
1.2
3132-1
2.1
70%
33%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.1
-
9Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka3036
33%
1.2
2937-8
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.2
-
10UCSAUCSA3036
33%
1.2
3040-10
2.3
70%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.3
-
11PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2934
28%
1.2
3033-3
2.2
72%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.1
-
12Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2934
28%
1.2
2431-7
1.9
59%
34%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.1
-
13ChernihivChernihiv3031
27%
1.0
3036-6
2.2
67%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.2
-
14Vorskla PoltavaVorskla Poltava3030
23%
1.0
2336-13
2.0
73%
20%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
15Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2921
14%
0.7
2042-22
2.1
72%
34%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
16Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya3019
13%
0.6
1661-45
2.6
70%
57%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
17Polissya IIPolissya II00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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