Metaloglobus faces Metalul Buzău at home in Romania's Liga II. Metalul Buzău is coming off a win, having defeated CS Afumati 3-1, but Metaloglobus is still reeling from a 1-3 loss to Chindia Targoviste. Despite this, the model suggests an Away win as the most likely result, with a 49% probability, significantly higher than the market's expectations.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 12.6% of the time. At home, Metaloglobus has scored an average of 0.9 goals and conceded 1.2, while Metalul Buzău has scored 2.43 goals and conceded 1.14 on the road against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 77.8% probability, and a 9% edge, suggesting a potential value in this pick. The probabilities for the match result are 24% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 49% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (77.8%), Home win (24%), Draw (27%), and Away win (49%).
In a stunning upset, Metaloglobus failed to capitalize on their home advantage, drawing 0-0 with Metalul Buzău. The surprise result extends Metaloglobus's winless streak, having come off a defeat in their previous match. Meanwhile, Metalul Buzău's recent form has been on an upward trend, following a win in their last outing. The model's selection, Metalul Buzău to win away, was incorrect, as they were pre-match favourites with a 49% probability of victory. The model's call was wrong. The model's suggested picks included Over 1.5 goals, which missed, with a 77.8% probability.
Metaloglobus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 0.93 | 2.60 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 1.78 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 0.89 | 2.22 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.25 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.17 | 1.75 | 1.06 | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 7.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 2.56 | 0.67 | 2.50 | 0.67 | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Metalul Buzău goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 13% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Metaloglobus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 1.08 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.44 | 1.21 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 4.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.11 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Metaloglobus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 1.44 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.83 | 1.25 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.06 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.44 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.33 | +8.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/24 | A | 2-2 |
Metaloglobus| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
Metalul Buzău| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 05/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Slatina | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | CSM Reşiţa | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | Concordia | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 5 | Popești-Leordeni | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | FC Bacau | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Metalul Buzău | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Chindia Targoviste | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Gloria Bistriţa | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | Ştefăneşti | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | ASA Targu Mures | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | CS Afumati | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Dumbrăviţa | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 17 | Bihor Oradea | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | CS Dinamo București | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1.5 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | Unirea Slobozia | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |