Metalul Buzău are the edge, with the model predicting a home win as the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see around 2.8 goals, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, a 12.9% chance. Metalul’s home form shows they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against teams of similar strength, while ASA Târgu Mureș, playing away, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.46 conceded. Metalul’s recent run of LLDWW, after two straight defeats, and ASA’s LWLDW, coming off a loss, set a cautious tone. The probabilities for the match result are 42% home win, 27% draw, and 31% away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.0%), Home +2 handicap (86.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.9%), and Under 4.5 (84.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metalul Buzău win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures win
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metalul Buzău
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.23
1.93
1.36
1.75
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.43
1.11
1.67
1.79
1.29
vs Weaker (7)
2.86
0.57
3.40
0.80
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
1.93
1.00
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.23
1.62
1.00
1.00
1.46
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
Metalul Buzău goals ↓
ASA Targu Mures goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
6.5%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.9%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.0%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metalul Buzău goals (down), columns = ASA Targu Mures goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
Metalul Buzău is 0.60 points better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
Metalul Buzău is 0.40 goals better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
Metalul Buzău is 0.40 goals better than ASA Targu Mures in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metalul Buzău or Draw
69.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Metalul Buzău + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău or ASA Targu Mures
72.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Metalul Buzău + ASA Targu Mures
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ASA Targu Mures
58.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Draw + ASA Targu Mures
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metalul Buzău, so a minus line means Metalul Buzău give that many goals of a start and ASA Targu Mures receive them. At -1, Metalul Buzău must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metalul Buzău win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metalul Buzău)
Metalul Buzău -2
8.4%
Draw -2
12.8%
ASA Targu Mures +2
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metalul Buzău)
Metalul Buzău -1
21.3%
Draw -1
20.4%
ASA Targu Mures +1
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metalul Buzău)
Metalul Buzău +1
69.0%
Draw +1
17.1%
ASA Targu Mures -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metalul Buzău)
Metalul Buzău +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.2%
ASA Targu Mures -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metalul Buzău
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.71
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.83
0.56
0.89
1.07
0.79
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metalul Buzău
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.21
0.71
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.61
0.56
0.78
0.71
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.43
2.40
0.60
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (ASA Targu Mures) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ASA Targu Mures
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.77
0.62
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
5.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASA Targu Mures over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
Metalul Buzău and ASA Targu Mures have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →