Metalul Buzău are the edge, with a 56% chance of victory, 27% for a draw, and 17% for Gloria Bistrița to win. The model favours a 1-0 win for the home side, a tidy 1-0 scoreline that carries a 13.5% probability. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27% chance. Metalul Buzău, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.64 conceded. Gloria Bistrița, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.23 scored and 1.85 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 77.9% probability and Over 1.5 with a 70.3% probability. The predicted result is a home win, but the match could still finish 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0.
Metalul Buzău’s recent run of two straight defeats left the home side looking fragile, while Gloria Bistrița, fresh from a win, seemed poised for a strong away display. The match finished 1-4 in favour of Gloria, a clear upset that saw the pre-match favourite - a Home win at 56% probability - miss the mark. The model’s other selections performed unevenly: the Under 3.5 goal pick, at 77.9%, was missed, whereas the Over 1.5, at 70.3%, hit. The final score confirmed an Away win, overturning expectations and highlighting the volatility of the league’s fixtures.
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.27 | 1.71 | 0.64 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.57 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 0.64 | 1.75 | 2.17 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.57 | 0.71 | 3.00 | 0.67 | 2.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.46 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.80 | 1.60 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.57 | 1.48 | 2.12 | 0.88 | 1.23 | 1.85 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 21% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Gloria Bistriţa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14% | 13% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.21 | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.29 | 0.14 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Metalul Buzău| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.70 | 1.07 | 0.43 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.91 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.29 | 0.57 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.70 | 1.29 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 41% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Metalul Buzău| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/12/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/12/25 | A | 4-7 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 0-2 |
Gloria Bistriţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 6-0 | |
| 03/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 31 | 69 | 68% | 2.2 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 2.3 | 58% | 39% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Voluntari | 31 | 64 | 61% | 2.1 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 2.4 | 68% | 39% | 19% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 30 | 64 | 63% | 2.1 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | ASA Targu Mures | 28 | 51 | 54% | 1.8 | 53 | 29 | +24 | 2.9 | 79% | 64% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Metalul Buzău | 28 | 50 | 57% | 1.8 | 49 | 32 | +17 | 2.9 | 71% | 54% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Bihor Oradea | 31 | 50 | 48% | 1.6 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 3.3 | 87% | 71% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 31 | 49 | 48% | 1.6 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 3.1 | 81% | 58% | 35% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Slatina | 28 | 43 | 43% | 1.5 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 28 | 42 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Concordia | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 2.4 | 68% | 36% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Politehnica Iasi | 28 | 41 | 43% | 1.5 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 2.1 | 61% | 36% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 | CSM Reşiţa | 28 | 40 | 43% | 1.4 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 2.9 | 82% | 46% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 13 | Chindia Targoviste | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 2.8 | 77% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | CS Afumati | 28 | 37 | 39% | 1.3 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | Gloria Bistriţa | 28 | 34 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 2.7 | 82% | 57% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 2.7 | 73% | 43% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | Dumbrăviţa | 28 | 32 | 32% | 1.1 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 2.5 | 64% | 46% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 18 | CSM Satu Mare | 28 | 28 | 29% | 1.0 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 3.2 | 79% | 57% | 46% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 19 | Tunari | 28 | 27 | 21% | 1.0 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 2.6 | 86% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 20 | CS Dinamo București | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 2.6 | 83% | 43% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 28 | 20 | 18% | 0.7 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 3.1 | 86% | 61% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Muscelul Câmpulung Elite | 28 | 11 | 7% | 0.4 | 14 | 72 | -58 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.6 | - |