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Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2026
Time: 08:00
Final 0-3
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Vs
22%
26%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Metalurh Zaporizhya win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L22D11D20W31W01L12L00D16L13LA·POD29/11H·NYV07/12A·CHE15/12H·VOR22/03A·UCS28/03H·CHO03/04A·YAR08/04A·INH12/04H·AHR19/04A·PRO25/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.602.000.712.070.501.94
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (29)0.621.970.712.070.531.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D30W03L13L12L10W21W10W11D40WA·PRY16/11H·CHE23/11A·LIV28/11H·BUK20/03A·MET28/03H·NYV03/04A·POD07/04H·VOR12/04A·UCS19/04H·CHO26/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.171.500.881.001.50
vs Stronger (2)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (28)1.321.071.530.731.081.46
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalurh Zaporizhya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
9.3%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
5.9%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
5.5%
Metalurh Zaporizhya goals ↓
Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals →
01234
07.5%9.8%9.3%5.3%2.3%
15.5%13%9.7%5.5%2.4%
23.5%5.9%5.1%2.9%1.2%
31.2%2.1%1.8%1.0%0.4%
40.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metalurh Zaporizhya goals (down), columns = Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bukovyna
2.70
Chornomorets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.10
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
Inhulets
1.53
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Chernihiv
1.03
Vorskla Poltava
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.72
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.63
Metalurh Zaporizhya is 0.57 points worse than Viktoriya Mykolaivka in terms of average points per game (0.63 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bukovyna
2.47
Livyi Bereh
1.67
Chornomorets
1.41
Inhulets
1.37
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
UCSA
1.00
Chernihiv
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Vorskla Poltava
0.77
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.69
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.53
Metalurh Zaporizhya is 0.70 goals worse than Viktoriya Mykolaivka in terms of goals scored per game (0.53 vs 1.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chornomorets
0.69
Livyi Bereh
0.70
Bukovyna
0.70
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Inhulets
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Vorskla Poltava
1.20
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.45
Metalurh Zaporizhya
2.03
Metalurh Zaporizhya is 0.77 goals worse than Viktoriya Mykolaivka in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D10W00D00D01L11D00D14L12LA·POD29/11H·NYV07/12A·CHE15/12H·VOR22/03A·UCS28/03H·CHO03/04A·YAR08/04A·INH12/04H·AHR19/04A·PRO25/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.870.431.070.250.69
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (29)0.340.860.431.070.270.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D10W01L01L00D00D11D10W01L10WA·PRY16/11H·CHE23/11A·LIV28/11H·BUK20/03A·MET28/03H·NYV03/04A·POD07/04H·VOR12/04A·UCS19/04H·CHO26/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.690.440.500.64
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.640.540.730.400.540.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalurh Zaporizhya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metalurh Zaporizhya over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalurh Zaporizhya over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalurh Zaporizhya over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L22D01L20W31W00D01L00D02L01LA·POD29/11H·NYV07/12A·CHE15/12H·VOR22/03A·UCS28/03H·CHO03/04A·YAR08/04A·INH12/04H·AHR19/04A·PRO25/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.130.291.000.251.25
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (29)0.281.100.291.000.271.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W02L12L12L10W10W00D10W30WA·PRY16/11H·CHE23/11A·LIV28/11H·BUK20/03A·MET28/03H·NYV03/04A·POD07/04H·VOR12/04A·UCS19/04H·CHO26/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.810.440.500.86
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (28)0.680.540.800.330.540.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalurh Zaporizhya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metalurh Zaporizhya over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalurh Zaporizhya over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalurh Zaporizhya over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (25)
€9m
CHO (21)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€4m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
YM (6)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (5)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
MZ wins
2
Draws
2
VM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · H/A from MZ
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/25AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs MZ3-0
08/10/24AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs MZ0-0
17/08/24HMZ Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka1-3
07/10/23HMZ Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka2-0
06/08/23AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs MZ1-1

Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AProbiy Horodenka Vs MZ3-1
19/04/26HMZ Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-6
12/04/26AInhulets Vs MZ0-0
08/04/26AYarud Mariupol' Vs MZ2-1
03/04/26HMZ Vs Chornomorets0-1
28/03/26AUCSA Vs MZ1-3
22/03/26HMZ Vs Vorskla Poltava2-0
15/12/25AChernihiv Vs MZ1-1
07/12/25HMZ Vs Nyva Ternopil2-2
29/11/25APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs MZ3-0

Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26HVM Vs Chornomorets4-0
19/04/26AUCSA Vs VM1-1
12/04/26HVM Vs Vorskla Poltava1-0
07/04/26APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs VM1-2
03/04/26HVM Vs Nyva Ternopil1-0
28/03/26AMetal Kharkiv Vs VM2-1
20/03/26HVM Vs Bukovyna1-3
28/11/25ALivyi Bereh Vs VM3-0
23/11/25HVM Vs Chernihiv3-0
16/11/25APrykarpattia Vs VM1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Metalurh Zaporizhya
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.76
HomeLDWLL0.75
AwayDWLDL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%17%15%
AVG goals2.562.672.46
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored0.760.830.69
Conceded1.801.831.77
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.42
HomeWLWWW1.50
AwayDLLWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.282.152.42
Over 1.5 %70%62%79%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.301.351.25
Conceded0.980.811.17
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet40%50%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BukovynaBukovyna3081
87%
2.7
7421+53
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4232.50.7
-
2Livyi BerehLivyi Bereh3063
63%
2.1
5021+29
2.4
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.7
-
3ChornomoretsChornomorets2962
62%
2.1
4120+21
2.1
62%
34%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2221.40.7
-
4Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk3053
53%
1.8
3628+8
2.1
53%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.20.9
-
5InhuletsInhulets3046
40%
1.5
4132+9
2.4
70%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.1
-
6Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv3037
33%
1.2
3135-4
2.2
73%
43%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.01.2
-
7Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka3036
33%
1.2
3738-1
2.5
77%
53%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.3
-
8Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'3036
30%
1.2
3132-1
2.1
70%
33%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.1
-
9Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka3036
33%
1.2
2937-8
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.2
-
10UCSAUCSA3036
33%
1.2
3040-10
2.3
70%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.3
-
11PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2934
28%
1.2
3033-3
2.2
72%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.1
-
12Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2934
28%
1.2
2431-7
1.9
59%
34%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.1
-
13ChernihivChernihiv3031
27%
1.0
3036-6
2.2
67%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.2
-
14Vorskla PoltavaVorskla Poltava3030
23%
1.0
2336-13
2.0
73%
20%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
15Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2921
14%
0.7
2042-22
2.1
72%
34%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
16Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya3019
13%
0.6
1661-45
2.6
70%
57%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
17Polissya IIPolissya II00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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