Metta / LU are clear favourites, the model assigning an 89 % chance of a home win and a 96.8 % probability to the “Home or Draw” selection. The 4.4 expected total goals and a 27 % chance of 6 + goals underline the high-scoring nature of the fixture. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 10.4 % probability, reflecting Metta / LU’s strong home form - averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.85 conceded against stronger opponents - while JFK Ventspils, playing away, averages 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded against weaker sides. Recent form backs this narrative: Metta / LU are on a two-game winning run, having beaten Rēzekne FA 2-0, whereas JFK Ventspils have suffered two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Super Nova 2. The model’s selections further reinforce the home advantage: Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Home +2 handicap (99.1 %), Home over 0.5 goals (97.5 %), Home +1 handicap (96.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.4 %), Over 1.5 (93.7 %), Under 7.5 (92.3 %). Home win 89 %, draw 8 %, away win 3 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metta / LU win
88.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
8.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils win
3.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.77
2.50
1.71
1.75
1.81
vs Stronger (23)
1.96
1.87
2.18
1.82
1.75
1.92
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.47
1.24
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.25
1.71
1.14
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
1.28
1.30
1.30
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.7%
Under 1.5
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
81.5%
Under 2.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.4%
4-0
9.6%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.4%
5-0
7.0%
4-1
6.8%
2-1
6.0%
5-1
5.0%
Metta / LU goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
1
4.3%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
2
8.4%
6.0%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
3
10%
7.4%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
9.6%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metta / LU goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Metta / LU is 2.27 points better than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Metta / LU is 5.03 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (5.83 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Metta / LU is 1.30 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metta / LU or Draw
96.8%
Avg Implied -
89%
8%
3%
covers Metta / LU + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU or JFK Ventspils
92.0%
Avg Implied -
89%
8%
3%
covers Metta / LU + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or JFK Ventspils
11.2%
Avg Implied -
89%
8%
3%
covers Draw + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5
Over
97.5%
Under
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5
Over
88.2%
Under
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 3.5
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metta / LU, so a minus line means Metta / LU give that many goals of a start and JFK Ventspils receive them. At -1, Metta / LU must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metta / LU win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU -2
56.8%
Draw -2
18.6%
JFK Ventspils +2
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU -1
75.3%
Draw -1
13.5%
JFK Ventspils +1
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU +1
96.8%
Draw +1
2.4%
JFK Ventspils -1
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU +2
99.1%
Draw +2
0.7%
JFK Ventspils -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.43
1.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.00
1.18
1.36
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.41
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.8%
Under 1.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.5%
Under 2.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HT
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HT
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HT
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.57
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
1.13
0.87
1.00
0.45
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.76
0.82
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.83
0.70
0.90
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
86.8%
Under 0.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.4%
Under 1.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2H
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2H
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2H
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
Rēzekne FA