Metta / LU’s recent 3-game winning streak, highlighted by a 6-0 rout of Smiltene, sets the tone for a clear favourite at home. The model rates a home win at 94%, with a draw only 4% and an away win 2%. The expected total of 5.8 goals, paired with a 49% chance of six or more, signals a high-scoring affair. The most likely scoreline is 4-0, with an 8% probability. Metta / LU averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded at home against similar opponents, while Riga Mariners, playing away, average 3.17 scored and 1.5 conceded versus similar teams. Suggested picks include Home +2 handicap at 99.5%, Home over 0.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Home or Draw at 98.2%, Home +1 handicap at 98.2%, Over 1.5 at 98.0%, Home or Away at 95.8%, and Home over 1.5 goals at 95.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metta / LU win
94.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
4.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners win
1.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.77
2.50
1.71
1.75
1.81
vs Stronger (23)
1.96
1.87
2.18
1.82
1.75
1.92
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.27
2.88
1.25
2.93
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
2.57
1.43
2.62
1.38
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.17
3.17
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (49%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
98.0%
Under 1.5
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
92.7%
Under 2.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
82.7%
Under 3.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
4-0
8.0%
5-0
7.8%
4-1
6.9%
5-1
6.8%
3-0
6.5%
6-0
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
6-1
5.6%
Metta / LU goals ↓
Riga Mariners goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1
1.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
2
4.0%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
3
6.5%
5.6%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
8.0%
6.9%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metta / LU goals (down), columns = Riga Mariners goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Metta / LU is 0.07 points better than Riga Mariners in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Metta / LU is 3.03 goals better than Riga Mariners in terms of goals scored per game (5.83 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Metta / LU is 0.50 goals better than Riga Mariners in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metta / LU or Draw
98.2%
Avg Implied -
94%
4%
2%
covers Metta / LU + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU or Riga Mariners
95.8%
Avg Implied -
94%
4%
2%
covers Metta / LU + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga Mariners
6.0%
Avg Implied -
94%
4%
2%
covers Draw + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5
Over
99.3%
Under
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5
Over
95.6%
Under
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 3.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metta / LU, so a minus line means Metta / LU give that many goals of a start and Riga Mariners receive them. At -1, Metta / LU must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metta / LU win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU -2
73.0%
Draw -2
12.9%
Riga Mariners +2
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU -1
85.9%
Draw -1
8.0%
Riga Mariners +1
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU +1
98.2%
Draw +1
1.3%
Riga Mariners -1
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metta / LU)
Metta / LU +2
99.5%
Draw +2
0.4%
Riga Mariners -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.43
1.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.00
1.18
1.36
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.19
0.44
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.57
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
1.13
0.87
1.00
0.45
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
1.69
0.81
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
0.93
1.62
0.88
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.00
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.25
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home +2 handicap
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -2 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 3.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Metta / LU and Riga Mariners have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Metta / LU and Riga Mariners have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Metta / LU and Riga Mariners have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Metta / LU and Riga Mariners have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA