Metz is expected to emerge victorious in this Ligue 2 matchup against Laval, with a 48% chance of winning at home. The model's selection is indeed a home win, and Metz's recent form has been coming off a draw, with a last score of 0-0 against Grenoble. Laval, on the other hand, is coming off a win, with a last score of 2-1 against Nantes.
The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%. Metz has a strong home form, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 1 goal against weaker opponents. Laval's away form has been poor, scoring 0.5 goals and conceding 2.75 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls (86.2%), Over 1.5 (76.9%), and Under 3.5 (70.7%). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 48%, 27%, and 25% respectively.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Metz, failed to secure the win, ending the match in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 46 % probability, but the result proved wrong. Metz’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run, while Laval also finished on a draw, both ending their last encounters 1-1. The model’s selections were largely accurate: every suggested pick hit, including Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5 %, Under 7.5 at 99.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8 %, Under 6.5 at 98.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.2 %, Under 5.5 at 94.5 % and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5 %. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, confirming the overall low-scoring expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metz win✗ Miss
46.3%
Avg Implied 52.2% · @ 1.78
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Draw✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Laval win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.40
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.72
Betano
4.60
William Hil
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.03
1.07
2.13
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
2.33
1.17
1.83
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.94
1.00
2.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.33
1.57
1.21
0.75
1.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.25
1.33
1.33
0.20
2.80
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.00
1.64
1.18
1.00
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.30+4.1%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.33-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.96+1.9%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.82-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.08
Superbet
2.02
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Under
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
@ 3.39+0.5%
Under 3.5
71.9%
@ 1.29-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.84+4.1%
No
45.6%
@ 1.86-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
888Sport
1.85
No
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
BetVictor
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%@ 6.36+6.2%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.32+2.5%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.77+3.6%
2-0
8.3%@ 7.86+2.7%
0-0
8.1%@ 8.93+3.1%
1-2
6.7%@ 13.20+3.3%
0-1
6.5%@ 10.86+2.4%
2-2
5.2%@ 14.41+2.1%
Metz goals ↓
Laval goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.5%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.5%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.3%
4.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metz goals (down), columns = Laval goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Metz is 0.67 points better than Laval in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Metz is 0.70 goals better than Laval in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 0.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Metz is 0.32 goals better than Laval in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Metz
For 4.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Laval
For 3.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.8
3.6
3.4
3.7
23.0
23.3
22.7
vs Stronger (16)
8.8
8.6
9.0
2.7
2.2
3.1
23.4
21.5
25.2
vs Similar (29)
10.0
9.5
10.5
3.9
3.8
4.1
23.0
24.3
21.5
vs Weaker (5)
8.8
7.0
9.2
4.4
8.0
3.5
21.6
23.0
21.2
% over line
41%
33%
48%
56%
56%
56%
67%
67%
68%
% under line
59%
67%
52%
44%
44%
44%
33%
33%
32%
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.7
9.1
3.8
4.0
3.6
28.3
28.4
28.2
vs Stronger (11)
10.6
11.3
9.8
3.5
3.8
3.0
26.4
25.8
27.0
vs Similar (38)
10.2
11.8
8.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
28.9
29.4
28.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
74%
40%
48%
38%
58%
90%
91%
88%
% under line
44%
26%
60%
52%
62%
42%
10%
9%
12%
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.4
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
Montpellier
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
PAU
9.4
Metz
9.4
Nantes
9.3
Dijon
9.3
Sochaux
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.1
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.7
Boulogne
8.6
Dunkerque
8.6
Annecy
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.7
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Rodez
4.1
Reims
4.1
Nancy
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Laval
4.0
Clermont Foot
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Metz
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Dijon
3.8
Grenoble
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Annecy
28.7
Boulogne
28.4
Laval
28.1
Guingamp
27.7
Dijon
27.6
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.6
Sochaux
26.2
Saint Etienne
26.2
PAU
25.9
Dunkerque
25.9
Rodez
25.7
Grenoble
25.6
Reims
24.8
Metz
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.9%
@ 2.06-3.1%
Under 9.5
58.1%
@ 1.68+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.9%
@ 1.75+2.6%
Under 3.5
45.1%
@ 1.92-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
Under
Superbet
1.92
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.9%
Under 21.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metz or Draw✓ Hit
73.9%
Avg Implied 78.7% · @ 1.19
Edge
-4.9%
46%
28%
26%
covers Metz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Metz or Laval✗ Miss
72.4%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.3%
46%
28%
26%
covers Metz + Laval
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
Draw or Laval✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied 47.5% · @ 1.97
Edge
+6.2%
46%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Laval
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
SBO
2.01
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
@ 1.17+0.0%
Under
21.0%
@ 4.39-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
888Sport
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Metz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 1.89-3.1%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.84+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Metz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 3.83-3.6%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.22+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.03
Superbet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Under
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Metz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 8.46-3.7%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Laval over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.3%
@ 1.53+6.5%
Under
32.7%
@ 2.37-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.54
888Sport
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Laval over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.8%
@ 3.62+5.1%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.25-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.82
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Laval over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 9.79+0.8%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.04-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Laval over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 26.38-1.0%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
30.00
888Sport
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metz, so a minus line means Metz give that many goals of a start and Laval receive them. At -1, Metz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metz)Actual: Laval
Metz -2
9.9%
@ 6.47-4.0%
Draw -2
14.4%
@ 4.99-3.6%
Laval +2
75.7%
@ 1.31+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Unibet
5.75
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Metz)Actual: Laval
Metz -1
24.3%
@ 3.10-4.4%
Draw -1
22.0%
@ 3.46-3.7%
Laval +1
53.7%
@ 1.95+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
2.88
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Away
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (Metz)Actual: Metz
Metz +1
73.9%
@ 1.19-1.6%
Draw +1
15.5%
@ 5.83+0.1%
Laval -1
10.7%
@ 9.82+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.60
Away
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
Handicap +2 (Metz)Actual: Metz
Metz +2
89.3%
@ 1.04+0.0%
Draw +2
7.4%
@ 12.67+0.1%
Laval -2
3.2%
@ 27.67-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.07
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.17
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.71
0.29
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.18
0.73
0.27
0.36
0.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.39+7.0%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 2.80-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.81
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.83+4.7%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.39-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 7.17+1.3%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.07-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.30
William Hil
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
63.6%
@ 1.77+11.2%
Under
36.4%
@ 1.95-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.1%
@ 4.78+3.8%
Under
76.9%
@ 1.15-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.85
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 12.92-1.8%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Laval over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.7%
@ 2.67-4.0%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.42+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Laval over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 9.52-4.9%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Laval over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 40.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.08
0.83
0.67
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.06
0.67
1.33
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.86
0.93
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.25
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.82
0.91
0.91
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.2%
Under 2.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
1.23
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Betfair
1.22
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.9%
1.15
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.7%
1.31
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.8%
1.30
Superbet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
1.39
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.4%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.9%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
1.41
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
+4.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Metz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Laval
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julien Maggiotti33%
Ethan Clavreul33%
Trévis Dago25%
Mathis Houdayer25%
Mamadou Samassa0%
Cyril Mandouki0%
William Bianda0%
Aboubacar Lô0%
Sam Sanna0%
Jules Gaudin0%
Chafik Gourichy0%
Esteban Mouton0%
Mamadou Sidibé0%
Yanis Court0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Maggiotti67%
Mamadou Sidibé33%
Jules Gaudin25%
Trévis Dago25%
Mamadou Samassa0%
Cyril Mandouki0%
William Bianda0%
Aboubacar Lô0%
Sam Sanna0%
Chafik Gourichy0%
Esteban Mouton0%
Ethan Clavreul0%
Mathis Houdayer0%
Yanis Court0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Esteban Mouton33%
Ethan Clavreul33%
Mamadou Samassa0%
Cyril Mandouki0%
William Bianda0%
Julien Maggiotti0%
Aboubacar Lô0%
Sam Sanna0%
Jules Gaudin0%
Chafik Gourichy0%
Trévis Dago0%
Mathis Houdayer0%
Mamadou Sidibé0%
Yanis Court0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathis Houdayer25%
Mamadou Samassa0%
Cyril Mandouki0%
William Bianda0%
Julien Maggiotti0%
Aboubacar Lô0%
Sam Sanna0%
Jules Gaudin0%
Chafik Gourichy0%
Trévis Dago0%
Esteban Mouton0%
Ethan Clavreul0%
Mamadou Sidibé0%
Yanis Court0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Metz's squad is €33m more valuable than Laval's (€43m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Metz's attack is €15m more valuable than Laval's (€17m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Metz's midfield is €15m more valuable than Laval's (€18m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Metz's defence is €3m more valuable than Laval's (€8m vs €4m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes