This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.83
0.67
3.33
0.60
2.33
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.75
3.00
1.33
vs Weaker (22)
2.86
0.55
3.45
0.55
2.27
0.55
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.4%
Under 2.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
8.2%
0-3
8.1%
1-1
6.9%
1-4
5.8%
0-4
5.7%
0-1 ✓
5.6%
Metz goals ↓
Monaco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
5.6%
8.7%
8.1%
5.7%
1
1.6%
6.9%
8.8%
8.2%
5.8%
2
1.1%
3.1%
4.4%
4.1%
2.9%
3
0.4%
1.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.0%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metz goals (down), columns = Monaco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.45
Monaco
2.11
Lyon
2.05
Marseille
2.03
Rennes
1.53
Saint Etienne
1.45
Bordeaux
1.45
Nice
1.42
Nantes
1.37
Montpellier
1.34
Dijon
1.26
Guingamp
1.24
Amiens
1.18
Angers
1.08
Lille
1.00
Caen
1.00
Strasbourg
1.00
Toulouse
0.97
Estac Troyes
0.87
Metz
0.68
Metz is 1.42 points worse than Monaco in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.84
Lyon
2.29
Monaco
2.24
Marseille
2.11
Dijon
1.45
Nice
1.39
Bordeaux
1.39
Rennes
1.32
Guingamp
1.26
Saint Etienne
1.24
Strasbourg
1.16
Angers
1.11
Lille
1.08
Toulouse
1.00
Amiens
0.97
Nantes
0.95
Montpellier
0.95
Metz
0.89
Estac Troyes
0.84
Caen
0.71
Metz is 1.34 goals worse than Monaco in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.76
Montpellier
0.87
Nantes
1.08
Amiens
1.11
Lyon
1.13
Rennes
1.16
Monaco
1.18
Marseille
1.24
Bordeaux
1.26
Saint Etienne
1.32
Nice
1.37
Angers
1.37
Caen
1.37
Toulouse
1.42
Guingamp
1.55
Estac Troyes
1.55
Lille
1.76
Strasbourg
1.76
Dijon
1.92
Metz
2.00
Metz is 0.82 goals worse than Monaco in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Metz
For 3.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
For 8.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.5
9.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
25.4
25.4
25.4
vs Stronger (13)
10.2
9.3
11.2
3.2
4.0
2.4
23.1
25.5
20.7
vs Similar (22)
8.9
8.7
9.2
2.6
3.3
2.1
26.7
25.7
27.9
vs Weaker (15)
7.7
6.8
8.4
2.9
1.6
4.3
25.7
24.5
26.6
% over line
45%
30%
60%
42%
50%
35%
78%
80%
75%
% under line
55%
70%
40%
58%
50%
65%
22%
20%
25%
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.3
11.0
3.2
3.4
3.0
25.2
25.6
24.8
vs Stronger (3)
12.7
9.0
14.5
2.0
3.0
1.5
18.7
19.0
18.5
vs Similar (14)
10.4
9.7
11.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
26.3
27.7
25.2
vs Weaker (33)
11.3
11.9
10.5
3.4
3.6
3.2
25.4
25.3
25.4
% over line
62%
64%
60%
44%
48%
40%
76%
72%
80%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
56%
52%
60%
24%
28%
20%
This opponent (Metz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estac Troyes
12.3
Monaco
11.1
Dijon
10.6
Paris Saint Germain
10.5
Amiens
10.5
Lyon
10.3
Guingamp
10.2
Marseille
9.8
Nantes
9.7
Angers
9.6
Montpellier
9.6
Strasbourg
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.4
Bordeaux
9.3
Lille
9.2
Metz
9.1
Rennes
9.0
Toulouse
8.8
Caen
8.7
Nice
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Toulouse
4.6
Strasbourg
4.5
Lyon
4.4
Bordeaux
3.9
Nantes
3.8
Lille
3.7
Nice
3.7
Angers
3.6
Saint Etienne
3.6
Estac Troyes
3.5
Metz
3.5
Caen
3.4
Dijon
3.4
Guingamp
3.3
Rennes
3.3
Monaco
3.2
Marseille
3.2
Montpellier
3.0
Amiens
3.0
Paris Saint Germain
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Toulouse
28.6
Lyon
28.0
Lille
27.8
Guingamp
26.4
Bordeaux
25.7
Metz
25.4
Dijon
25.4
Nice
25.3
Saint Etienne
25.2
Monaco
25.2
Nantes
24.9
Marseille
24.6
Rennes
24.0
Strasbourg
24.0
Caen
24.0
Angers
23.5
Amiens
23.5
Montpellier
23.4
Estac Troyes
22.6
Paris Saint Germain
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.5%
Under 9.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.9%
Under 21.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.47
0.40
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.62
0.38
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.23
1.27
0.20
1.27
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
1.57
0.29
1.25
0.25
2.00
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.23
0.23
1.27
0.18
1.18
0.27
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.27
0.93
1.00
0.20
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.75
0.88
0.29
1.14
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.57
1.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.43
2.07
0.40
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.71
1.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.64
0.32
2.18
0.36
1.09
0.27
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Monaco · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
GUI (20)
€11m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
Metz's squad is €283m less valuable than Monaco's (€43m vs €326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
Metz's attack is €131m less valuable than Monaco's (€17m vs €148m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
NIC (9)
€31m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
DIJ (6)
€2m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
Metz's midfield is €66m less valuable than Monaco's (€18m vs €84m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
AMI (8)
€4m
GUI (8)
€3m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Metz's defence is €86m less valuable than Monaco's (€8m vs €93m).
France: Ligue 1 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
Marseille
Rennes
Bordeaux
Saint Etienne
Nice
Nantes
Montpellier
Dijon
Guingamp
Amiens
Angers
Strasbourg
Caen
Lille
Toulouse
Estac Troyes