Metz’s home form shows a defensive frailty, conceding 2.33 goals per game, while their attack averages only one goal. Rodez, on the road, is more efficient, scoring 1.64 and keeping 1.29. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 43% chance, a 32% chance for a home win, and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely score is 1-1, a 11.3% probability. The most probable total is three goals, at 22%. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 2% edge), Under 7.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.5% with a 2% edge), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.0% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6% with a 4% edge), and Over 19.5 fouls (91.8%). Both sides have been unbeaten in their last five, with Metz drawing 1-1 against Annecy and Rodez drawing 2-2 against PAU.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metz win
30.9%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 2.01
Edge
-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.12
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Rodez win
44.0%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.70
Pinnacle
3.61
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.90
1.00
2.20
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
2.20
1.00
2.20
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.94
1.00
2.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
1.62
1.00
1.65
1.18
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.62
1.15
1.58
1.00
1.64
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.21+7.3%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 4.03-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.17
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.10
Marathonbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.73+7.9%
Under 2.5
37.5%
@ 2.07-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.10
Betfair
2.05
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.2%
@ 2.75+6.4%
Under 3.5
59.8%
@ 1.41-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.80
Betano
2.77
Under
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Both teams to score
Yes
64.6%
@ 1.59+6.4%
No
35.4%
@ 2.21-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
William Hil
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
No
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.26
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.37+4.2%
1-2
9.1%@ 10.88+4.9%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.04+1.9%
2-2
6.6%@ 11.58+2.7%
0-2
6.2%@ 18.08+3.7%
0-1
6.0%@ 11.09+2.0%
1-3
5.3%@ 24.49+3.5%
0-0
5.0%@ 11.55+1.1%
Metz goals ↓
Rodez goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.0%
6.2%
3.7%
1.6%
1
4.8%
11%
9.1%
5.3%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.5%
6.6%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.1%
3.6%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metz goals (down), columns = Rodez goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Metz is 0.02 points worse than Rodez in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Metz is 0.24 goals better than Rodez in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Metz is 0.14 goals better than Rodez in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Metz
For 5.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rodez
For 5.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.8
3.6
3.6
3.7
23.0
23.3
22.7
vs Stronger (16)
8.8
8.6
9.0
2.7
2.2
3.1
23.4
21.5
25.2
vs Similar (27)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.9
3.8
4.1
22.7
23.9
21.2
vs Weaker (7)
9.7
9.0
10.0
4.6
7.0
3.6
23.4
26.5
22.2
% over line
43%
38%
48%
58%
60%
56%
67%
67%
68%
% under line
57%
62%
52%
42%
40%
44%
33%
33%
32%
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.1
9.9
3.9
4.0
3.8
26.1
25.0
27.3
vs Stronger (6)
10.3
10.0
10.7
4.7
5.7
3.7
24.7
22.7
26.7
vs Similar (42)
10.0
10.2
9.8
3.9
3.9
4.0
26.5
25.5
27.4
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
2.0
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
54%
50%
58%
54%
54%
54%
83%
79%
88%
% under line
46%
50%
42%
46%
46%
46%
17%
21%
12%
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Metz
9.5
Grenoble
9.5
PAU
9.4
Saint Etienne
9.4
Montpellier
9.4
Nancy
9.4
Dijon
9.3
Clermont Foot
9.2
Nantes
9.2
Sochaux
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.6
Annecy
8.6
Boulogne
8.5
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.6
Nantes
4.4
Boulogne
4.4
PAU
4.4
Sochaux
4.2
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Reims
4.1
Rodez
4.1
Laval
4.0
Nancy
4.0
RED Star FC 93
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Metz
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Dijon
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Boulogne
28.3
Laval
28.3
Annecy
28.3
Guingamp
27.6
Dijon
27.6
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.3
Sochaux
26.1
Dunkerque
25.8
Grenoble
25.8
Rodez
25.7
PAU
25.6
Reims
24.6
Metz
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.0%
@ 1.76-6.6%
Under 9.5
54.0%
@ 1.96+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.4%
Under 21.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metz or Draw
56.0%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.28
Edge
-16.7%
31%
25%
44%
covers Metz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Metz or Rodez
74.9%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.4%
31%
25%
44%
covers Metz + Rodez
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Draw or Rodez
69.1%
Avg Implied 53.9% · @ 1.73
Edge
+15.3%
31%
25%
44%
covers Draw + Rodez
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metz over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
@ 1.16-2.9%
Under
23.3%
@ 4.53+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.50
Metz over/under 1.5
Over
42.7%
@ 1.85-7.5%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.87+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.83
Metz over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
@ 3.65-7.3%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.24+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Metz over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
@ 7.80-5.9%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.06+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Rodez over/under 0.5
Over
82.9%
@ 1.34+13.6%
Under
17.1%
@ 3.02-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Under
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Rodez over/under 1.5
Over
52.7%
@ 2.67+17.9%
Under
47.3%
@ 1.43-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Rodez over/under 2.5
Over
26.0%
@ 6.24+11.2%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.09-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Rodez over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
@ 15.88+4.3%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.02-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metz, so a minus line means Metz give that many goals of a start and Rodez receive them. At -1, Metz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metz)
Metz -2
5.4%
@ 7.36-6.8%
Draw -2
9.2%
@ 5.67-6.6%
Rodez +2
85.4%
@ 1.25+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.30
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (Metz)
Metz -1
14.6%
@ 3.48-11.0%
Draw -1
16.2%
@ 3.75-7.6%
Rodez +1
69.1%
@ 1.77+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.28
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Handicap +1 (Metz)
Metz +1
56.0%
@ 1.28-14.2%
Draw +1
19.9%
@ 5.19+2.5%
Rodez -1
24.1%
@ 7.21+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.75
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Metz)
Metz +2
75.9%
@ 1.06-11.1%
Draw +2
13.6%
@ 11.00+5.2%
Rodez -2
10.5%
@ 20.00+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.33
1.07
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.30
0.40
1.40
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.54
0.69
0.65
0.59
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.69
0.50
0.75
0.71
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.33+3.3%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.12-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 2.48+3.1%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.49-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 5.93-2.5%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.10+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Betano
5.80
Marathonbet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.5%
@ 1.76+5.1%
Under
42.5%
@ 1.95-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Metz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.8%
@ 4.75+0.3%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.15-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Metz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.6%
@ 11.75-3.5%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Rodez over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.6%
@ 2.22-3.0%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.58+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Rodez over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
@ 7.15-3.5%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Rodez over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 19.25-3.4%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.67
1.13
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.06
0.67
1.33
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.08
0.31
1.00
0.59
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.46
1.08
0.25
0.93
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.18+1.3%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 4.31-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.1%
@ 1.89+4.0%
Under 1.5
46.9%
@ 1.82-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.8%
@ 3.75-4.0%
Under 2.5
79.2%
@ 1.24+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.3%
@ 1.52+5.2%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.40-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Metz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.1%
@ 3.44-2.9%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.27+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Metz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
@ 8.83-4.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Rodez over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.1%
@ 1.85-3.0%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.86+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Rodez over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 5.21-4.1%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.12+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Rodez over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 13.88-3.4%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.5%
Under 6.5
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+5.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+3.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-4.3%
Under 5.5
89.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-1.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-
+4.1%
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
+13.4%
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+7.3%
Over 21.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
+13.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.0%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+7.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
1.15
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-0.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+1.3%
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+4.0%
Under 4.5
77.7%
1.14
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-4.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
-2.9%
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.33
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
+8.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-
+2.9%
Home +2 handicap
75.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
-11.1%
Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+1.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
74.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-11.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.33
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+3.3%
Over 23.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Metz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Rodez
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ibrahima Baldé75%
Octave Joly50%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou25%
Loni Laurent0%
Kenny Nagera0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Mathis Magnin0%
Raphaël Lipinski0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Mathis Touho0%
Jordan Mendes Correia0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Loni Laurent25%
Mathis Magnin25%
Ibrahima Baldé25%
Raphaël Lipinski25%
Jordan Mendes Correia25%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou25%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert25%
Kenny Nagera0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Octave Joly0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Mathis Touho0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphaël Lipinski50%
Kenny Nagera25%
Mathis Magnin25%
Jordan Mendes Correia25%
Loni Laurent0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Ibrahima Baldé0%
Octave Joly0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Mathis Touho0%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Baldé50%
Mathis Touho50%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou25%
Loni Laurent0%
Kenny Nagera0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Mathis Magnin0%
Raphaël Lipinski0%
Octave Joly0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Jordan Mendes Correia0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Metz's squad is €28m more valuable than Rodez's (€43m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Metz's attack is €13m more valuable than Rodez's (€17m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Metz's midfield is €14m more valuable than Rodez's (€18m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Metz and Rodez have a similar defence value (both €8m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Nancy
Annecy
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes