This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.20
0.67
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.43
0.14
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
1.29
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.0%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
5.9%
0-0 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
Metz goals ↓
Saint Etienne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.7%
8.0%
4.9%
2.2%
1
4.8%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.5%
6.4%
5.8%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metz goals (down), columns = Saint Etienne goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Monaco
2.50
Paris Saint Germain
2.29
Nice
2.05
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.63
Bordeaux
1.55
Nantes
1.34
Saint Etienne
1.32
Guingamp
1.32
Rennes
1.32
Lille
1.21
Angers
1.21
Toulouse
1.16
Metz
1.13
Montpellier
1.03
Caen
0.97
Dijon
0.97
Lorient
0.95
Nancy
0.92
Bastia
0.89
Metz is 0.18 points worse than Saint Etienne in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Monaco
2.82
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lyon
2.11
Nice
1.66
Marseille
1.50
Bordeaux
1.39
Montpellier
1.26
Guingamp
1.21
Dijon
1.21
Lorient
1.16
Saint Etienne
1.08
Lille
1.05
Nantes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Metz
1.03
Toulouse
0.97
Caen
0.95
Rennes
0.95
Bastia
0.76
Nancy
0.76
Metz is 0.05 goals worse than Saint Etienne in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.71
Monaco
0.82
Nice
0.95
Marseille
1.08
Toulouse
1.08
Saint Etienne
1.11
Rennes
1.11
Bordeaux
1.13
Lille
1.24
Lyon
1.26
Angers
1.29
Nancy
1.37
Guingamp
1.39
Nantes
1.42
Bastia
1.50
Dijon
1.53
Caen
1.71
Montpellier
1.74
Lorient
1.84
Metz
1.89
Metz is 0.79 goals worse than Saint Etienne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Metz
For 4.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 9.8 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Saint Etienne
For 4.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
10.4
9.6
11.0
0.9
0.8
1.0
24.2
21.2
26.7
vs Stronger (7)
10.4
10.0
10.7
2.3
2.7
2.0
22.8
24.0
22.0
vs Similar (14)
11.0
10.5
11.5
1.3
1.1
1.4
24.8
19.0
30.5
vs Weaker (28)
9.0
7.0
11.0
0.4
0.1
0.6
26.5
20.0
33.0
% over line
55%
40%
67%
14%
17%
12%
64%
40%
83%
% under line
45%
60%
33%
86%
83%
88%
36%
60%
17%
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
10.7
11.4
9.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
27.4
25.7
29.2
vs Stronger (16)
11.5
12.5
10.5
4.0
3.8
4.2
29.7
27.4
32.0
vs Similar (22)
10.5
11.7
9.1
4.3
4.1
4.6
26.3
24.2
28.7
vs Weaker (11)
9.8
9.0
10.5
3.1
3.4
2.8
26.5
26.4
26.5
% over line
57%
68%
46%
59%
56%
62%
78%
64%
92%
% under line
43%
32%
54%
41%
44%
38%
22%
36%
8%
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saint Etienne
10.7
Dijon
10.6
Metz
10.4
Caen
10.2
Monaco
10.2
Lille
9.8
Bordeaux
9.6
Lorient
9.5
Montpellier
9.5
Angers
9.5
Marseille
9.5
Guingamp
9.3
Rennes
9.3
Nice
9.1
Paris Saint Germain
8.9
Nantes
8.8
Toulouse
8.7
Bastia
8.6
Lyon
8.6
Nancy
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
4.6
Toulouse
4.6
Lyon
4.6
Lille
4.6
Nantes
4.2
Guingamp
4.2
Nice
4.2
Monaco
4.1
Bordeaux
4.0
Metz
4.0
Saint Etienne
3.9
Angers
3.9
Lorient
3.8
Marseille
3.7
Montpellier
3.7
Rennes
3.6
Nancy
3.5
Caen
3.5
Dijon
3.3
Paris Saint Germain
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lille
31.0
Toulouse
29.2
Lyon
28.3
Guingamp
28.3
Bastia
28.1
Monaco
28.0
Saint Etienne
27.4
Nancy
27.3
Marseille
27.2
Nantes
27.1
Montpellier
26.2
Bordeaux
26.1
Nice
25.7
Angers
25.3
Lorient
24.7
Caen
24.4
Metz
24.2
Rennes
23.8
Dijon
23.5
Paris Saint Germain
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.7%
Under 9.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.57
0.93
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
0.67
0.53
0.50
0.62
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.30
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (13)
0.08
0.15
0.00
0.14
0.17
0.17
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.50
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.71
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
1.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.33
1.12
0.25
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.13
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.70
0.83
0.67
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.31
1.43
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
1.00
1.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Saint Etienne · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Irvin Cardona75%
Thierno Ballo75%
Jakob Breum67%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Áron Csongvai25%
Augustine Boakye25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakob Breum67%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Maxime Bernauer25%
Irvin Cardona0%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Thierno Ballo0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Augustine Boakye0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jakob Breum67%
Irvin Cardona50%
Thierno Ballo50%
Augustine Boakye50%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Áron Csongvai25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Ballo50%
Jakob Breum33%
Irvin Cardona25%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Joshua Duffus25%
Kevin Pedro25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Augustine Boakye0%
Adam Baallal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
NAN (26)
€13m
GUI (20)
€11m
BAS (19)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
CAE (18)
€4m
Metz's squad is €50m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€43m vs €93m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
NAN (9)
€5m
BAS (9)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Metz's attack is €37m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€17m vs €54m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
NAN (6)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
BAS (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
Metz's midfield is €7m more valuable than Saint Etienne's (€18m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
NAN (11)
€6m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Metz's defence is €20m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€8m vs €28m).
France: Ligue 1 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
Lyon
Marseille
Bordeaux
Nantes
Rennes
Guingamp
Lille
Angers
Toulouse
Montpellier
Dijon
Caen
Lorient
Nancy
Bastia