The model favours an away win, with a 43 % chance for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, a 31 % chance for MFK Bytča to win and a 26 % chance of a draw. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total is two, with a 24 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.3 % chance. MFK Bytča, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages one goal scored and 2.5 conceded, while Baník Lehota, away against a stronger side, averages 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (96.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.8 %), Under 5.5 (91.8 %), Away +2 handicap (85.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.4 %) and Under 4.5 (81.9 %). The home win probability is 31 %, the draw 26 %, and the away win 43 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MFK Bytča win
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MFK Bytča
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
2.08
1.00
2.33
1.86
1.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.83
1.00
2.00
2.25
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.40
1.81
1.56
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.67
1.80
1.20
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.35
1.90
1.90
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
MFK Bytča goals ↓
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
7.1%
6.7%
3.6%
1.5%
1
5.8%
12%
9.1%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.7%
7.6%
6.2%
3.3%
1.4%
3
2.1%
3.4%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MFK Bytča goals (down), columns = Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Žilina II
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.33
Malženice
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Galanta
1.17
Humenné
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Slovan Bratislava II
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.50
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.50
MFK Bytča is 1.17 points worse than Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.67
Šamorín
2.17
Pohronie
2.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.83
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.67
Inter Bratislava
1.50
Tatran Prešov
1.50
Slovan Bratislava II
1.50
Žilina II
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.67
Humenné
0.67
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.67
Galanta
0.67
MFK Bytča is 1.17 goals worse than Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.33
Šamorín
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.17
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.33
Humenné
1.50
Galanta
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Slovan Bratislava II
1.67
MFK Bytča
3.17
MFK Bytča is 1.83 goals worse than Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom in terms of goals conceded per game (3.17 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MFK Bytča or Draw
57.4%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers MFK Bytča + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
73.6%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers MFK Bytča + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
69.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 1.5
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MFK Bytča, so a minus line means MFK Bytča give that many goals of a start and Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom receive them. At -1, MFK Bytča must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MFK Bytča win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča -2
5.0%
Draw -2
9.2%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom +2
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča -1
14.2%
Draw -1
16.7%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom +1
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča +1
57.4%
Draw +1
20.2%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom -1
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča +2
77.6%
Draw +2
13.2%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MFK Bytča
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
1.23
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.57
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
1.06
0.69
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.80
0.20
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.65
1.20
1.00
1.10
0.30
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MFK Bytča
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.85
0.17
1.00
1.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.75
0.88
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
0.70
0.90
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (19)
€2m
PET (23)
€2m
ŠAM (22)
€2m
POH (17)
€1m
LZ (16)
€1m
ZM (14)
€1m
LM (14)
€1m
BLP (20)
€1m
PB (17)
€1m
ŽI (12)
€1m
IB (18)
€1m
SBI (18)
€1m
MAL (13)
€1m
HUM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (7)
€1m
PET (10)
€1m
LM (8)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€0m
ŽI (4)
€0m
POH (4)
€0m
BLP (6)
€0m
IB (5)
€0m
PB (4)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ZM (3)
€0m
HUM (2)
€0m
SBI (4)
€0m
LZ (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŠAM (6)
€1m
LZ (3)
€0m
TP (4)
€0m
PB (6)
€0m
SBI (8)
€0m
PET (5)
€0m
POH (5)
€0m
ZM (4)
€0m
BLP (3)
€0m
IB (4)
€0m
LM (2)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (8)
€1m
ZM (7)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
POH (8)
€1m
LZ (10)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€1m
BLP (11)
€0m
ŽI (7)
€0m
PB (7)
€0m
IB (9)
€0m
MAL (7)
€0m
SBI (6)
€0m
LM (4)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
MB wins
0
Draws
0
BLP wins
Head-to-head
MFK Bytča vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · H/A from MB
Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →