MFK Bytča are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 79% chance of a home win. The team’s home form shows they score an average of one goal while conceding 2.5 against weaker opposition, and the recent two-game winning streak gives them confidence. Humenné, playing away, have a weaker record, conceding 1.86 goals and scoring 1.07 against stronger opponents, and they are coming off a defeat. The expected total goals is 3.4, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Bytča, with a 12.4% probability. The model’s pick remains a home win, and the overall probabilities are 79% for a home win, 15% for a draw, and 6% for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.5%, Home +2 handicap at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.7%, Under 6.5 at 94.4%, Home or Draw at 93.5%, Home +1 handicap at 93.5%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 93.2%. Each selection is listed with its exact percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MFK Bytča win
78.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Humenné win
6.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MFK Bytča
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
2.08
1.00
2.33
1.86
1.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.83
1.00
2.00
2.25
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Humenné) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Humenné
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.30
1.00
0.80
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (30)
1.03
1.30
1.00
0.80
1.07
1.80
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.4%
3-0
11.1%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
7.4%
1-1
7.0%
4-1
5.1%
MFK Bytča goals ↓
Humenné goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.6%
7.0%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
2
12%
8.5%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.6%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
7.4%
5.1%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MFK Bytča goals (down), columns = Humenné goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Žilina II
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.33
Malženice
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Galanta
1.17
Humenné
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Slovan Bratislava II
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.50
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.50
MFK Bytča is 0.50 points worse than Humenné in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.67
Šamorín
2.17
Pohronie
2.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.83
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.67
Inter Bratislava
1.50
Tatran Prešov
1.50
Slovan Bratislava II
1.50
Žilina II
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.67
Humenné
0.67
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.67
Galanta
0.67
MFK Bytča and Humenné are level in goals scored per game (both 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.33
Šamorín
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.17
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.33
Humenné
1.50
Galanta
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Slovan Bratislava II
1.67
MFK Bytča
3.17
MFK Bytča is 1.67 goals worse than Humenné in terms of goals conceded per game (3.17 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MFK Bytča or Draw
93.5%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers MFK Bytča + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča or Humenné
85.4%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers MFK Bytča + Humenné
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Humenné
21.1%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Draw + Humenné
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5
Over
93.2%
Under
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 3.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 0.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 1.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MFK Bytča, so a minus line means MFK Bytča give that many goals of a start and Humenné receive them. At -1, MFK Bytča must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MFK Bytča win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča -2
36.8%
Draw -2
22.0%
Humenné +2
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča -1
58.8%
Draw -1
20.1%
Humenné +1
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča +1
93.5%
Draw +1
4.7%
Humenné -1
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča +2
98.2%
Draw +2
1.4%
Humenné -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MFK Bytča
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
1.23
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.57
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Humenné) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Humenné
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.07
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (30)
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.07
0.40
1.13
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MFK Bytča
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.85
0.17
1.00
1.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Humenné) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Humenné
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (30)
0.57
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Humenné over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →