MFK Bytča’s home form shows a modest 1.0 goal per game while conceding 2.5, and they are facing a stronger opponent, whereas Šamorín, on a three-game winning streak, averages 3.5 scored and 3.0 conceded against stronger teams. The model predicts a 58% chance of an away win, a 21% draw, and a 21% home win, with the favourite result being an away victory. The expected total is 3.6 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Šamorín, with a 9.4% chance. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals98.0%, Under 7.596.9%, Home under 3.5 goals95.4%, Home under 1.5 HT goals95.3% with a 5% edge, Under 6.592.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals91.3%, and Away +2 handicap91.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MFK Bytča win
20.6%
Avg Implied 12.9% · @ 7.04
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.50
Dafabet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Draw
21.3%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.53
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.72
Betfair
4.60
Betano
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
Šamorín win
58.1%
Avg Implied 67.0% · @ 1.36
Edge
-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
William Hil
1.36
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MFK Bytča
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
2.08
1.00
2.33
1.86
1.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.83
1.00
2.00
2.25
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šamorín
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.30
1.20
1.13
2.07
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
3.50
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.25
1.00
1.17
1.92
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.3%
@ 1.17+10.4%
Under 1.5
11.7%
@ 4.10-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Under
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
3.65
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.8%
@ 1.57+11.6%
Under 2.5
30.2%
@ 2.19-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Under
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
@ 2.42+10.7%
Under 3.5
51.5%
@ 1.48-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Both teams to score
Yes
66.7%
@ 1.80+16.0%
No
33.3%
@ 1.85-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.75
No
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%@ 7.32+3.7%
1-1
9.0%@ 7.90+3.8%
1-3
7.1%@ 9.92+2.9%
0-2
7.1%@ 6.54+0.7%
2-2
6.2%@ 14.60+3.4%
2-1
5.4%@ 17.80+3.1%
0-1
5.4%@ 6.86-0.7%
0-3
5.4%@ 8.42+0.5%
MFK Bytča goals ↓
Šamorín goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
5.4%
7.1%
5.4%
3.1%
1
2.8%
9.0%
9.4%
7.1%
4.1%
2
2.4%
5.4%
6.2%
4.7%
2.7%
3
1.1%
2.4%
2.7%
2.1%
1.2%
4
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MFK Bytča goals (down), columns = Šamorín goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Žilina II
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.33
Malženice
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Galanta
1.17
Humenné
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Slovan Bratislava II
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.50
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.50
MFK Bytča is 2.00 points worse than Šamorín in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.67
Šamorín
2.17
Pohronie
2.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.83
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.67
Inter Bratislava
1.50
Tatran Prešov
1.50
Slovan Bratislava II
1.50
Žilina II
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.67
Humenné
0.67
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.67
Galanta
0.67
MFK Bytča is 1.50 goals worse than Šamorín in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.33
Šamorín
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.17
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.33
Humenné
1.50
Galanta
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Slovan Bratislava II
1.67
MFK Bytča
3.17
MFK Bytča is 2.17 goals worse than Šamorín in terms of goals conceded per game (3.17 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MFK Bytča or Draw
41.9%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.81
Edge
+9.2%
21%
21%
58%
covers MFK Bytča + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
William Hil
2.80
MFK Bytča or Šamorín
78.7%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.14
Edge
-1.7%
21%
21%
58%
covers MFK Bytča + Šamorín
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Draw or Šamorín
79.4%
Avg Implied 86.9% · @ 1.06
Edge
-7.5%
21%
21%
58%
covers Draw + Šamorín
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5
Over
73.4%
@ 1.68+18.5%
Under
26.6%
@ 2.04-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5
Over
38.2%
@ 4.12+15.9%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.18-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.15
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
@ 9.30+5.0%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.02-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Under
1xBet
1.02
MFK Bytča over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
@ 1.05+2.0%
Under
10.2%
@ 7.50-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
7.50
Šamorín over/under 1.5
Over
66.4%
@ 1.46+3.2%
Under
33.6%
@ 2.51-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
Betano
2.35
Šamorín over/under 2.5
Over
39.8%
@ 2.33+0.3%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.53-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.36
Marathonbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Šamorín over/under 3.5
Over
19.6%
@ 4.50-0.7%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.15+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.15
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MFK Bytča, so a minus line means MFK Bytča give that many goals of a start and Šamorín receive them. At -1, MFK Bytča must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MFK Bytča win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča -2
2.9%
Draw -2
5.9%
Šamorín +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča -1
8.8%
Draw -1
11.8%
Šamorín +1
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča +1
41.9%
@ 2.85+11.1%
Draw +1
20.8%
@ 3.54-4.0%
Šamorín -1
37.2%
@ 1.99-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Draw
Marathonbet
3.58
Betfair
3.50
Away
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Handicap +2 (MFK Bytča)
MFK Bytča +2
62.8%
@ 1.71+10.8%
Draw +2
17.5%
@ 4.15-3.9%
Šamorín -2
19.7%
@ 3.34-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.71
Draw
Marathonbet
4.15
Away
Marathonbet
3.34
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MFK Bytča
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
1.23
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.57
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šamorín
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.53
0.47
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.42
0.42
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.26+4.7%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 3.29-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
@ 2.31+5.6%
Under 1.5
54.7%
@ 1.52-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.31
Betano
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 5.07+0.4%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.13-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.3%
@ 2.83-2.3%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.37+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.35
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.6%
@ 9.70-4.8%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Under
1xBet
1.01
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.6%
@ 1.50+1.8%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.43-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.35
Šamorín over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.3%
@ 3.30-0.6%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.28+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.28
Šamorín over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.6%
@ 9.00-3.6%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MFK Bytča
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.85
0.17
1.00
1.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šamorín
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.75
0.58
0.75
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (MFK Bytča) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
86.7%
@ 1.15+6.3%
Under 0.5
13.3%
@ 4.70-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.6%
@ 1.78+4.0%
Under 1.5
44.4%
@ 1.89-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.8%
@ 3.20-3.7%
Under 2.5
75.2%
@ 1.28+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MFK Bytča over/under 0.5 2H
Over
33.9%
@ 2.36-5.3%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.52+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Under
1xBet
1.52
MFK Bytča over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
@ 8.60-0.3%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.03+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Under
1xBet
1.03
MFK Bytča over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.6%
@ 1.32+9.4%
Under
20.4%
@ 3.10-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
3.10
Šamorín over/under 1.5 2H
Over
40.5%
@ 2.48+3.3%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.47-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.48
Under
1xBet
1.47
Šamorín over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.7%
@ 5.90-4.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.08+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Under
1xBet
1.08
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
Under 6.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.8%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
Over 1.5
88.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
-
+10.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.0%
Under 5.5
84.4%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
-
-
-0.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
80.4%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
Away over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
Draw or Away
79.4%
1.06
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
-7.5%
Away +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
1.14
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
-1.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.0%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-
+4.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
73.4%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.62
-
+18.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
Under 4.5
70.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
-7.2%
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Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →