Mika’s recent draw suggests a cautious start, but the numbers point to a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals. The model favours an away win, reflected in a 57% probability for Ar Armenia II, 23% for a draw and 20% for Mika. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% chance, while the expected total of three goals aligns with the 22% probability of a 3-goal outcome. Mika, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded. In contrast, Ar Armenia II, on the road, averages 1.83 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 84% probability of hitting. The match is projected to be a balanced yet high-scoring contest, with the away side holding the edge.
Results analysis
The latest fixture saw Mika’s recent form, a draw to open a five-match run, falter as they fell to a 0-3 defeat, while Ararat-Armenia II extended their own streak of draws and losses. The model’s favourite, an Away win, was right on target, matching the final result. With a 57% probability, the prediction was spot on. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 84% chance and indeed hit, as the match produced three goals. All figures are taken directly from the model’s output, confirming that the favoured outcome and the key selection both came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mika win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II win✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.73
0.54
2.15
0.88
3.18
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
2.89
0.50
2.25
1.00
3.40
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.56
1.94
1.64
2.07
vs Stronger (18)
1.28
2.39
1.10
2.60
1.50
2.12
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.42
2.33
0.83
1.83
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-1
7.3%
1-3
6.7%
0-3 ✓
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
5.6%
Mika goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
7.3%
8.5%
5.8%
3.0%
1
3.7%
11%
9.8%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.7%
5.6%
5.7%
3.9%
2.0%
3
1.1%
2.2%
2.2%
1.5%
0.8%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mika goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.62
Syunik
2.54
Noah II
1.92
Lernayin Artsakh
1.75
Banants II
1.58
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.42
Shirak II
1.33
Ararat II
1.21
Bentonit Ijevan
1.00
Ararat-Armenia II
0.79
Mika
0.67
Nikarm
0.04
Mika is 0.12 points worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
3.21
Syunik
2.67
Lernayin Artsakh
2.50
Banants II
1.96
Noah II
1.96
Pyunik II
1.96
Ararat II
1.83
Shirak II
1.79
Andranik
1.71
Bentonit Ijevan
1.58
Ararat-Armenia II
1.25
Mika
1.04
Nikarm
0.71
Mika is 0.21 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Syunik
0.54
BKMA II
0.71
Noah II
1.21
Banants II
1.38
Lernayin Artsakh
1.42
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.67
Shirak II
1.96
Ararat II
2.00
Bentonit Ijevan
2.21
Ararat-Armenia II
2.29
Mika
2.96
Nikarm
4.29
Mika is 0.67 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.96 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.40
0.31
1.23
0.41
1.53
vs Stronger (28)
0.39
1.46
0.33
1.33
0.44
1.56
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.87
0.53
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.82
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.38
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.27
0.31
0.92
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (28)
0.46
1.36
0.33
1.00
0.56
1.62
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
0.67
1.20
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
1.35
0.44
1.56
1.00
1.12
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Mika and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Mika and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Mika and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Mika and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →