Mika and Lernayin Artsakh are set to face off in a finely balanced match, with both teams seeking to break their respective recent form streaks. Mika comes into this match after a defeat, while Lernayin Artsakh is still reeling from five consecutive losses. The home win probability stands at 39%, while the draw is at 26% and the away win at 34%. The model's selection is a home win, which is the most likely outcome.
The expected total number of goals is 3.0, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.2%. In terms of goal scoring and conceding, Mika averages 1.07 goals at home and concedes 2.0, while Lernayin Artsakh averages 0.5 goals away and concedes 1.5 against a weaker opponent.
The model's selection for the match is Over 1.5, with a probability of 81.6%. This suggests that the model expects a high-scoring match, with a strong likelihood of at least two goals being scored. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 (81.6%), and the home and away win percentages are 39%, 26%, and 34% respectively.
Results analysis
The win extends Mika’s recent run, with a 3-1 triumph over Lernayin Artsakh. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, reflecting the 39 % probability it assigned. The final score matched the favoured outcome, and the match delivered a total of four goals, exceeding the expected 3.0 but still within the model’s high-confidence range for the most likely total of two goals. Every suggested selection was addressed: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.5 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 83.4 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 81.9 %, Over 1.5 hit at 81.6 %, Away +2 handicap missed at 79.9 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 79.2 %, and Home under 2.5 goals missed at 79.1 %. The model’s predictions largely came through.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mika win✓ Hit
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.03
1.00
1.87
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (27)
1.04
2.22
1.00
2.15
1.07
2.29
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.50
0.69
2.38
0.79
2.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
2.57
0.71
2.71
0.43
2.43
vs Similar (14)
0.93
2.71
0.75
2.25
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.9%
Mika goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.9%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.5%
12%
8.1%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.7%
6.3%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.1%
4.6%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mika goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Mika is 0.14 points better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Mika is 0.31 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Mika is 0.45 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mika or Draw✓ Hit
65.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
34%
covers Mika + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mika or Lernayin Artsakh✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
34%
covers Mika + Lernayin Artsakh
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh✗ Miss
60.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
34%
covers Draw + Lernayin Artsakh
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mika over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mika, so a minus line means Mika give that many goals of a start and Lernayin Artsakh receive them. At -1, Mika must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mika win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mika)Actual: Draw
Mika -2
8.0%
Draw -2
12.0%
Lernayin Artsakh +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mika)Actual: Mika
Mika -1
20.1%
Draw -1
19.2%
Lernayin Artsakh +1
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mika)Actual: Mika
Mika +1
65.6%
Draw +1
17.8%
Lernayin Artsakh -1
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mika)Actual: Mika
Mika +2
83.4%
Draw +2
10.4%
Lernayin Artsakh -2
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.47
0.87
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (27)
0.33
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.38
0.94
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.93
0.29
0.71
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mika over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
1.22
0.62
1.15
0.79
1.29
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.60
0.31
1.44
0.50
1.79
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.64
0.43
2.00
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mika over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Mika and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Mika and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Mika and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Mika and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →