Millwall are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of a home victory, 28% for a draw and 22% for Bolton. The model expects 2.5 goals in total, with a 27% probability that the final tally will be two. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% chance. Millwall, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Bolton, on the road, average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (96.2% with a 3% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.7% with a 5% edge). Millwall’s recent form shows a 5-game run of two losses followed by three wins, while Bolton also returned from two defeats with a 5-game sequence of two losses, one draw, one win, one loss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Millwall win
50.0%
Avg Implied 49.8% · @ 1.88
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.38
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Bolton win
22.0%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.15
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.42
Pinnacle
4.40
Unibet
4.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Millwall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.10
1.62
1.08
1.47
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.55
1.14
1.62
1.08
1.50
1.19
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
2.21
1.43
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.43
2.18
1.64
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.78
2.33
0.67
1.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.32+1.7%
Under 1.5
27.7%
@ 3.18-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.4%
@ 2.03-1.1%
Under 2.5
54.6%
@ 1.77+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
SBO
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.1%
@ 3.51-2.5%
Under 3.5
75.9%
@ 1.27+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.53
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to score
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.86-0.6%
No
50.6%
@ 1.85+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.97
Betfair
1.90
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
No
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.19+6.1%
1-0
11.6%@ 6.23+4.4%
2-0
9.9%@ 8.19+4.4%
0-0
9.5%@ 8.71+4.4%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.99+3.7%
0-1
6.6%@ 10.11+2.2%
1-2
5.7%@ 12.90+2.3%
3-0
5.1%@ 14.51+2.0%
Millwall goals ↓
Bolton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
6.6%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.3%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.1%
4.8%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Millwall goals (down), columns = Bolton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Millwall is 0.75 points better than Bolton in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Millwall is 0.39 goals better than Bolton in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Millwall is 0.71 goals better than Bolton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.77).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Millwall
For 6.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 8.6 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bolton
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Millwall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.8
3.4
3.1
3.7
20.5
20.0
21.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
11.0
10.9
11.0
3.4
3.1
3.7
20.4
20.0
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
54%
58%
50%
42%
29%
54%
32%
25%
38%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
58%
71%
46%
68%
75%
62%
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.2
10.0
3.4
4.0
2.9
21.8
21.2
22.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
10.9
11.4
10.3
3.6
4.2
2.9
21.7
21.5
21.9
vs Weaker (18)
10.0
10.8
9.3
3.1
3.4
2.8
21.8
20.5
23.0
% over line
60%
62%
58%
42%
56%
28%
50%
33%
67%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
58%
44%
72%
50%
67%
33%
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.6%
@ 1.62+2.4%
Under 9.5
40.4%
@ 2.16-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Unibet
2.08
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.7%
@ 1.95-4.2%
Under 3.5
56.3%
@ 1.79+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.70
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
48.2%
Under 21.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Millwall or Draw
79.4%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.9%
50%
28%
22%
covers Millwall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Millwall or Bolton
72.0%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.1%
50%
28%
22%
covers Millwall + Bolton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Draw or Bolton
48.6%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.89
Edge
-0.9%
50%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Bolton
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Millwall over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
@ 1.19+0.9%
Under
21.3%
@ 4.19-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
1xBet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Millwall over/under 1.5
Over
45.8%
@ 2.00-0.9%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.75+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.75
Millwall over/under 2.5
Over
20.3%
@ 4.14-2.1%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.20+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.16
Marathonbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Millwall over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
@ 9.42-2.7%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.40
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bolton over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
@ 1.52-1.8%
Under
40.8%
@ 2.38+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Bolton over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
@ 3.61-3.2%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.25+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.74
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bolton over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
@ 10.09-3.2%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Bolton over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
@ 20.75-3.3%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Millwall, so a minus line means Millwall give that many goals of a start and Bolton receive them. At -1, Millwall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Millwall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Millwall)
Millwall -2
11.3%
@ 7.26-1.1%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 5.27-0.9%
Bolton +2
72.6%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Millwall)
Millwall -1
27.4%
@ 3.33+0.4%
Draw -1
24.0%
@ 3.51-1.7%
Bolton +1
48.6%
@ 1.90+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Away
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.91
Unibet
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Millwall)
Millwall +1
79.4%
@ 1.20+5.4%
Draw +1
13.4%
@ 5.36-3.2%
Bolton -1
7.2%
@ 9.44-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
4.15
Away
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.20
Handicap +2 (Millwall)
Millwall +2
92.8%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Draw +2
5.4%
@ 11.67-2.5%
Bolton -2
1.8%
@ 27.00-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Millwall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.77
0.15
0.41
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.38
0.77
0.15
0.38
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.86
0.36
0.19
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.38
0.91
0.45
0.10
0.30
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.44
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.2%
@ 1.41-0.6%
Under 0.5
34.8%
@ 2.71+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Under
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.4%
@ 2.94-0.3%
Under 1.5
68.6%
@ 1.36+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.15
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.01
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.94
Under
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 7.77-1.0%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.05+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Millwall over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.8%
@ 1.85-0.5%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.87+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Millwall over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.8%
@ 5.23-2.9%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.12+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
Unibet
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Betano
5.10
10Bet
4.75
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Millwall over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
@ 11.00-5.7%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bolton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.6%
@ 2.72+0.4%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.41-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.72
10Bet
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
Bolton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 9.83-1.6%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.04+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bolton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Millwall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.85
0.92
1.06
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.76
0.85
0.92
1.12
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bolton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.36
1.07
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.05
1.27
1.18
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.33
1.67
0.67
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.25+2.2%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 3.62-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 2.19-1.3%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.63+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
William Hil
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 4.81-2.9%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.15+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Millwall over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.4%
@ 1.59+0.9%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.25-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Millwall over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.7%
@ 3.77-3.8%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.22+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Millwall over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
@ 8.95-5.5%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Bolton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.1%
@ 2.15+0.1%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.63-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Bolton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.0%
@ 7.30-1.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
7.60
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Bolton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 12.00-6.0%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 5.5
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.7%
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+4.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+1.6%
Under 4.5
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
+2.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.06
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+1.7%
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+2.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.15
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.13
+2.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.7%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+2.1%
Home or Draw
79.4%
1.21
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+1.9%
Home +1 handicap
79.4%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+5.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
-
+3.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 goals
77.4%
1.25
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+3.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.2%
Under 3.5
75.9%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+2.5%
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Away +2 handicap
72.6%
1.27
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
+2.0%
Over 1.5
72.3%
1.32
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+1.7%
Home or Away
72.0%
1.28
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
-1.1%
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
1.34
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
-
+3.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Millwall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Cundle40%
Tairyk Arconte25%
Josh Coburn20%
Jake Cooper17%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jenson Metcalfe33%
Casper De Norre20%
Lyndon Dykes20%
Josh Coburn20%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zak Lovelace25%
Jake Cooper17%
Camiel Neghli17%
Jenson Metcalfe17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Josh Coburn0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Coburn20%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Bolton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Dalby40%
Thierry Gale20%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
J. Sheehan0%
John McAtee0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Hardie33%
Akin Famewo20%
J. Sheehan20%
John McAtee20%
Thierry Gale20%
Gaizka Larrazabal20%
Chris Forino20%
S. Dalby0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
John McAtee20%
Thierry Gale20%
S. Dalby0%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
J. Sheehan0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
S. Iling-Junior0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Sheehan40%
John McAtee40%
S. Iling-Junior25%
S. Dalby20%
Thierry Gale20%
Akin Famewo0%
Ben Davies0%
J. Bonham0%
Ryan Hardie0%
Ethan Erhahon0%
Gaizka Larrazabal0%
Lewis Brunt0%
M. Conway0%
Chris Forino0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Millwall's squad is €68m more valuable than Bolton's (€85m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Millwall's attack is €26m more valuable than Bolton's (€30m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Millwall's midfield is €25m more valuable than Bolton's (€29m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Millwall's defence is €17m more valuable than Bolton's (€25m vs €9m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston