Milsami Orhei are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 64% chance of a home win and picking that result as the most likely outcome. Their recent draw against Dacia-Buiucani shows a solid defence, and at home they average 2.33 goals scored while conceding only 0.67 against weaker opposition. CSF Bălți, on the other hand, struggle on the road, scoring just 0.17 and conceding 2.75 against stronger teams. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a compact match, with the most probable scoreline 1-0 for Milsami at 13.3%. The model also highlights a 74.4% chance of Under 3.5 and a 73.5% chance of Over 1.5, both marked as hits. Home win probability stands at 64%, draw at 24%, and away win at 12%. These figures underscore why the model leans heavily on Milsami’s home advantage and CSF Bălți’s away struggles.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to deliver, with CSF Bălţi securing a 2-0 victory. The model had predicted a 64% chance for Milsami Orhei to win, but the outcome was an away win. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away side’s triumph. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 74.4% probability, and Over 1.5 goals also hit at 73.5%. The match finished with a 2-0 scoreline, matching the most likely score of 1-1 or 1-0 in the model’s distribution, but the actual result was a clean-sheet win for CSF Bălţi.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
63.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win✓ Hit
12.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.33
0.53
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.42
0.50
0.50
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.00
2.33
0.67
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.29
1.21
1.00
2.38
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
2.20
1.25
1.38
0.17
2.75
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.00
1.20
1.00
3.67
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.3%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.4%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
4.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.6%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
8.2%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saxan
2.46
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.25
Zimbru
1.88
Milsami Orhei
1.75
FC Stăuceni
1.73
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
1.25
CSF Bălți
1.17
Făleşti
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
0.67
Floreşti
0.04
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.58 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saxan
3.69
Milsami Orhei
2.29
Zimbru
2.25
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.08
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.92
Petrocub
1.67
FC Stăuceni
1.55
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Făleşti
1.17
CSF Bălți
1.12
FCM Ungheni
1.00
Olimp Comrat
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Floreşti
0.12
Milsami Orhei is 1.17 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50
Saxan
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani
0.92
Zimbru
1.04
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Petrocub
1.08
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25
FC Stăuceni
1.36
CSF Bălți
1.38
Victoria Bardar
1.92
Spartanii Selemet
2.29
Făleşti
2.67
Iskra
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Olimp Comrat
3.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
Floreşti
4.60
Milsami Orhei is 0.29 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.73
0.13
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.17
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.25
1.50
0.17
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.57
0.29
0.25
1.31
vs Stronger (20)
0.20
1.10
0.50
0.38
0.00
1.58
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.25
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.75
0.83
0.50
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.71
0.93
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.75
0.60
0.80
2.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's defence is €1m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€2m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Dacia-Buiucani
Petrocub
Saxan
FC Stăuceni
Spartanii Selemet
Victoria Bardar
Speranis Nisporeni
Făleşti
Iskra
Floreşti
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FCM Ungheni
Olimp Comrat