Milsami Orhei are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 71% chance of a home win. Their recent 0-0 draw against Dacia-Buiucani shows they can hold opponents, while CSF Bălţi, who have suffered three straight defeats, struggle away, conceding an average of two goals per game. The prediction model therefore rates Milsami’s 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded at home against a weaker side as decisive, whereas Bălţi’s 0.45 goals scored and 2.0 conceded away to a stronger opponent underlines their vulnerability.
The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Milsami, carrying a 14.5% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of two goals is the most probable overall total.
The home win probability is 71%, the draw 20%, and the away win 9%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Home +2 handicap (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (94.1%), Home or Draw (91.1%), and Home +1 handicap (91.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win
71.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win
8.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.88
1.00
1.36
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
2.27
0.71
1.57
0.75
3.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.73
1.14
0.71
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.10
0.86
2.00
0.56
2.19
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
2.10
0.60
2.20
0.45
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.80
2.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.5%
1-0
12.9%
3-0
10.2%
1-1
9.4%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
7.4%
3-1
6.3%
4-0
5.4%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
1
13%
9.4%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.0%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
10%
6.3%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
5.4%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Milsami Orhei is 0.89 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Milsami Orhei is 0.33 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Milsami Orhei is 1.67 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 3.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Milsami Orhei or Draw
91.1%
Avg Implied -
71%
20%
9%
covers Milsami Orhei + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei or CSF Bălți
80.0%
Avg Implied -
71%
20%
9%
covers Milsami Orhei + CSF Bălți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSF Bălți
28.9%
Avg Implied -
71%
20%
9%
covers Draw + CSF Bălți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
Under
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 3.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Milsami Orhei, so a minus line means Milsami Orhei give that many goals of a start and CSF Bălți receive them. At -1, Milsami Orhei must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Milsami Orhei win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei -2
25.1%
Draw -2
21.9%
CSF Bălți +2
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei -1
47.0%
Draw -1
24.1%
CSF Bălți +1
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei +1
91.1%
Draw +1
6.5%
CSF Bălți -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.9%
CSF Bălți -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.31
0.31
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.33
0.14
0.14
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.21
0.93
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.27
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.11
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.45
0.29
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.57
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.64
1.07
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.40
1.20
0.18
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.25
0.75
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's defence is €1m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€2m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Sireți