Defensive solidity will shape the early minutes, with Milsami Orhei’s home form showing a modest 0.71 goals conceded per game and Dacia-Buiucani struggling away, conceding 1.89. The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance, a draw at 30% and an away win at 22%. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Milsami’s average home scoring of 1.14 against weaker opposition and Dacia’s away scoring of 0.67 against stronger teams underline the tight contest.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 5.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.3%), Home +2 handicap (92.4%) and Under 4.5 (92.2%). Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap to match-result chances. The recent 0-0 draw for both sides hints at a cautious approach, reinforcing the low-scoring projection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani win
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.88
1.00
1.36
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
2.27
0.71
1.57
0.75
3.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.73
1.14
0.71
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.83
1.00
2.06
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
2.05
0.64
2.18
0.67
1.89
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.9%
Under 1.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.7%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Dacia-Buiucani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.8%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.4%
1.6%
0.3%
2
10%
8.7%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.7%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Dacia-Buiucani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Milsami Orhei is 0.44 points worse than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Milsami Orhei is 0.33 goals worse than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Milsami Orhei is 0.22 goals worse than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Milsami Orhei or Draw
77.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Milsami Orhei + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei or Dacia-Buiucani
70.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Milsami Orhei + Dacia-Buiucani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
52.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Draw + Dacia-Buiucani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5
Over
57.7%
Under
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Milsami Orhei, so a minus line means Milsami Orhei give that many goals of a start and Dacia-Buiucani receive them. At -1, Milsami Orhei must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Milsami Orhei win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei -2
9.0%
Draw -2
14.8%
Dacia-Buiucani +2
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei -1
23.9%
Draw -1
24.1%
Dacia-Buiucani +1
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei +1
77.9%
Draw +1
14.5%
Dacia-Buiucani -1
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei +2
92.4%
Draw +2
5.7%
Dacia-Buiucani -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.31
0.31
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.33
0.14
0.14
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.95
0.27
1.00
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.45
0.29
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.57
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.50
1.19
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
1.10
0.36
1.18
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.90
0.80
1.20
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €2m more valuable than Dacia-Buiucani's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's defence is €1m more valuable than Dacia-Buiucani's (€2m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Sireți
CSF Bălți