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Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM Result & Analysis

Date: 17/08/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 4-1
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Vs
80%
14%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milsami Orhei win✓ Hit
80.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
6.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D21W00D31W21W33D32W12L03LA·KUP08/07H·KUP15/07A·DAC19/07A·BUD23/07H·SPA27/07H·BUD31/07A·CSF03/08H·VIR07/08A·ZIM10/08A·VIR14/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.072.211.071.691.06
vs Stronger (6)0.501.500.332.000.671.00
vs Similar (12)1.751.252.571.000.601.60
vs Weaker (12)2.830.673.000.502.750.75
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-704L03L12L23L00D01L07L03LH·SHE22/06H·MIL28/06A·PET05/07H·DAC12/07A·SPA20/07H·CSF26/07A·ZIM03/08A·SHE10/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.382.880.502.750.253.00
vs Stronger (5)0.203.800.003.500.334.00
vs Similar (3)0.671.331.002.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.4%
Under 2.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
3-0
10.9%
2-1
8.3%
3-1
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
4-0
7.7%
1-1
6.5%
4-1 ✓
5.5%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Politehnica UTM goals →
01234
03.5%1.5%0.8%0.2%0.0%
17.7%6.5%2.1%0.5%0.1%
212%8.3%3.0%0.7%0.1%
311%7.8%2.8%0.7%0.1%
47.7%5.5%2.0%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Politehnica UTM goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.35 points better than Politehnica UTM in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 1.13).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Oguzsport
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.10 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
Milsami Orhei is 0.97 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D00D30W00D03L10W11D00DA·KUP08/07H·KUP15/07A·DAC19/07A·BUD23/07H·SPA27/07H·BUD31/07A·CSF03/08H·VIR07/08A·ZIM10/08A·VIR14/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.930.210.560.50
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.330.670.000.33
vs Similar (12)0.670.331.000.140.200.60
vs Weaker (12)1.080.331.250.001.000.50
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L01L21W00D00D01L03LH·SHE22/06H·MIL28/06A·PET05/07H·DAC12/07A·SPA20/07H·CSF26/07A·ZIM03/08A·SHE10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.251.250.501.250.001.25
vs Stronger (5)0.001.800.002.000.001.67
vs Similar (3)0.670.331.000.500.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D21W00D01L21W30W22D01L03LA·KUP08/07H·KUP15/07A·DAC19/07A·BUD23/07H·SPA27/07H·BUD31/07A·CSF03/08H·VIR07/08A·ZIM10/08A·VIR14/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.290.861.120.56
vs Stronger (6)0.331.000.001.330.670.67
vs Similar (12)1.080.921.570.860.401.00
vs Weaker (12)1.750.331.750.501.750.25
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L01L11D02L00D01L06L00DH·SHE22/06H·MIL28/06A·PET05/07H·DAC12/07A·SPA20/07H·CSF26/07A·ZIM03/08A·SHE10/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.121.620.001.500.251.75
vs Stronger (5)0.202.000.001.500.332.33
vs Similar (3)0.001.000.001.500.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.3%-------✓ Hit
Home win80.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Politehnica UTM have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Politehnica UTM have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's defence is €1m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
MO wins
0
Draws
0
PU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Milsami Orhei vs Politehnica UTM · H/A from MO
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/25APolitehnica UTM Vs MO0-3

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/08/25AVirtus Vs MO3-0
10/08/25AZimbru Vs MO2-1
07/08/25HMO Vs Virtus3-2
03/08/25ACSF Bălți Vs MO3-3
31/07/25HMO Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-1
27/07/25HMO Vs Spartanii Selemet3-1
23/07/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MO0-0
19/07/25ADacia-Buiucani Vs MO1-2
15/07/25HMO Vs KuPS0-0
08/07/25AKuPS Vs MO1-0

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25ASheriff Tiraspol Vs PU3-0
03/08/25AZimbru Vs PU7-0
26/07/25HPU Vs CSF Bălți0-1
20/07/25ASpartanii Selemet Vs PU0-0
12/07/25HPU Vs Dacia-Buiucani2-3
05/07/25APetrocub Vs PU2-1
28/06/25HPU Vs Milsami Orhei0-3
22/06/25HPU Vs Sheriff Tiraspol0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.54
HomeLDWWW1.87
AwayWDDLL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%33%
AVG goals3.003.042.96
Over 1.5 %82%87%78%
Over 2.5 %60%57%63%
Over 3.5 %32%35%30%
Scored1.842.171.56
Conceded1.160.871.41
BTTS50%43%56%
Clean Sheet32%43%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.12
HomeLLLL0.00
AwayLDLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals3.253.253.25
Over 1.5 %75%75%75%
Over 2.5 %75%75%75%
Over 3.5 %38%50%25%
Scored0.380.500.25
Conceded2.882.753.00
BTTS25%25%25%
Clean Sheet12%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PetrocubPetrocub3173
71%
2.4
6417+47
2.6
81%
48%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.5
-
2Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol3164
65%
2.1
5722+35
2.5
68%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.80.7
-
3ZimbruZimbru3162
58%
2.0
7032+38
3.3
87%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2112.31.0
-
4Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei3146
42%
1.5
4738+9
2.7
77%
65%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.51.2
-
5CSF BălțiCSF Bălți3137
32%
1.2
3144-13
2.4
71%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
6Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM3135
32%
1.1
4468-24
3.6
94%
71%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
7Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet3329
24%
0.9
3281-49
3.4
85%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.5
-
8SirețiSireți1324
54%
1.8
2214+8
2.8
69%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.71.1
-
9FloreştiFloreşti1317
31%
1.3
1817+1
2.7
69%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
10Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani3116
13%
0.5
3059-29
2.9
81%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.01.9
-
11IskraIskra1213
25%
1.1
1215-3
2.2
75%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
12FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni115
0%
0.5
1023-13
3.0
64%
45%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
13OguzsportOguzsport23
50%
1.5
57-2
6.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.53.5
-
14Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni21
0%
0.5
56-1
5.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.53.0
-
16Univer ComratUniver Comrat10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
17FăleştiFăleşti10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
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Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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