The model favours an away win for Sheriff Tiraspol, with a 42% probability against Milsami Orhei’s 30% home-side chance and a 28% chance of a draw. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, but the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. Milsami, playing at home, has been struggling against stronger opposition, scoring only 0.5 goals per game while conceding 1.0. Sheriff, on the road, has been prolific against weaker teams, netting 2.25 goals and conceding just 0.5 on average. The suggested picks from the model are Over 1.5 goals at 75.9% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.0%. The recent form shows Milsami coming off a draw, while Sheriff is returning from a defeat. These figures set the stage for a tightly contested match where Sheriff’s offensive firepower and Milsami’s defensive frailties will be decisive.
Results analysis
The upset was swift: Milsami Orhei snatched a 1-0 victory, ending their recent run of a draw, while Sheriff Tiraspol, the pre-match favourite, fell short. The model had tipped an away win with a 42% probability, but that call proved wrong. The model’s other selections also missed the mark: Over 1.5 goals, projected at 75.9%, was missed, whereas Under 3.5, at 72.0%, hit the mark. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home side’s triumph, contradicting the model’s expectation of a Sheriff win. The outcome underscores the unpredictability of the league.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.13
2.14
1.07
1.88
1.19
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.45
1.83
1.17
0.40
1.80
vs Weaker (13)
3.31
0.92
3.00
1.00
3.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.93
2.31
0.81
1.50
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.67
2.00
1.75
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
2.42
0.47
2.55
0.45
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-0
8.1%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
1-0 ✓
7.1%
2-2
5.4%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.9%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
1
7.1%
13%
9.0%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.0%
7.3%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.0%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.58 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oguzsport
2.50
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.32 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
Milsami Orhei is 0.52 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.43
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.64
0.83
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.62
0.54
1.50
0.33
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.38
0.38
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
1.50
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.21
1.45
0.18
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.07
0.64
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.82
1.00
0.67
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
0.38
1.50
0.67
1.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.94
0.44
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.26
0.26
1.09
0.27
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's attack is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Petrocub
Zimbru
CSF Bălți
Politehnica UTM
Spartanii Selemet
Sireți
Floreşti
Dacia-Buiucani
Iskra
FC Stăuceni
Oguzsport
Victoria Bardar
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
Făleşti