Defensive solidity dominates the forecast: Milsami Orhei, at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and has not conceded in recent matches, while Sheriff Tiraspol, on the road against a weaker side, scores 1.67 goals per game and concedes 0.56. The model favours an away win, with a 44 % chance, followed by a draw at 31 % and a home win at 25 %. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3 % probability. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Under 5.5 (97.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3 %), Under 4.5 (92.4 %) and Away +2 handicap (90.8 %). Both teams are coming off wins, with Milsami’s last 5-game run of WLDDD and Sheriff’s WDLWL, and the recent 1-0 and 4-0 victories over Petrocub and Politehnica UTM respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.88
1.00
1.36
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
2.27
0.71
1.57
0.75
3.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.73
1.14
0.71
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.79
1.00
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
1.40
1.20
1.50
2.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.47
2.25
0.38
1.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.8%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.5%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
1
9.4%
15%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.5%
6.8%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
3
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Milsami Orhei is 0.89 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Milsami Orhei is 1.22 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Milsami Orhei is 0.67 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Milsami Orhei or Draw
60.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
39%
covers Milsami Orhei + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei or Sheriff Tiraspol
68.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
39%
covers Milsami Orhei + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
39%
covers Draw + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5
Over
64.2%
Under
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Milsami Orhei, so a minus line means Milsami Orhei give that many goals of a start and Sheriff Tiraspol receive them. At -1, Milsami Orhei must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Milsami Orhei win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei -2
3.3%
Draw -2
8.2%
Sheriff Tiraspol +2
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei -1
11.6%
Draw -1
17.8%
Sheriff Tiraspol +1
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei +1
60.5%
Draw +1
21.6%
Sheriff Tiraspol -1
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Milsami Orhei)
Milsami Orhei +2
82.1%
Draw +2
11.8%
Sheriff Tiraspol -2
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.31
0.31
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.33
0.14
0.14
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.20
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.41
1.12
0.38
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.8%
Under 0.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.4%
Under 1.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.1%
Under 2.5
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.45
0.29
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.57
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.06
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.7%
Under 1.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.9%
Under 2.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's attack is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Sireți
CSF Bălți