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Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 2-0
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Vs
46%
26%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zimbru
Zimbru
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milsami Orhei win✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-650W02L04L11D30W21W51W20W61W22DA·FLO26/10H·PET30/10H·SHE02/11A·DAC09/11H·SPA23/11A·ZIM08/03H·PET16/03A·CSF29/03A·SPA06/04A·SHE13/04
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.272.311.001.941.47
vs Stronger (6)0.831.830.502.501.001.50
vs Similar (11)1.641.821.801.001.502.50
vs Weaker (13)3.080.543.330.502.860.57
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZimbruZimbru

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W24L10W31W10W12L00D31W32W20WH·FLO20/10A·SHE27/10H·DAC03/11A·SPA10/11H·PET23/11H·MIL08/03A·SHE15/03H·SPA30/03H·PET06/04A·CSF12/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.302.191.001.641.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.381.881.781.330.862.57
vs Weaker (14)2.570.642.710.572.430.71
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.9%
2-0 ✓
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Zimbru goals →
01234
06.5%5.6%4.2%1.7%0.5%
17.9%12%7.0%2.9%0.9%
27.6%9.4%5.9%2.4%0.8%
34.2%5.3%3.3%1.4%0.4%
41.8%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Zimbru goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saxan
2.46
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.25
Zimbru
1.88
Milsami Orhei
1.75
FC Stăuceni
1.73
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
1.25
CSF Bălți
1.17
Făleşti
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
0.67
Floreşti
0.04
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.12 points worse than Zimbru in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Saxan
3.69
Milsami Orhei
2.29
Zimbru
2.25
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.08
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.92
Petrocub
1.67
FC Stăuceni
1.55
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Făleşti
1.17
CSF Bălți
1.12
Olimp Comrat
1.00
FCM Ungheni
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Floreşti
0.12
Milsami Orhei is 0.04 goals better than Zimbru in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 2.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50
Saxan
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani
0.92
Zimbru
1.04
Petrocub
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25
FC Stăuceni
1.36
CSF Bălți
1.38
Victoria Bardar
1.92
Spartanii Selemet
2.29
Făleşti
2.67
Olimp Comrat
3.00
Iskra
3.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Floreşti
4.60
Milsami Orhei is 0.04 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.04).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L01L00D10W00D20W00D31W01LA·FLO26/10H·PET30/10H·SHE02/11A·DAC09/11H·SPA23/11A·ZIM08/03H·PET16/03A·CSF29/03A·SPA06/04A·SHE13/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.371.000.150.710.53
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.000.500.250.50
vs Similar (11)0.640.550.600.200.670.83
vs Weaker (13)1.310.151.670.001.000.29
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZimbruZimbru

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W13L00D21W00D00D00D10W20W10WH·FLO20/10A·SHE27/10H·DAC03/11A·SPA10/11H·PET23/11H·MIL08/03A·SHE15/03H·SPA30/03H·PET06/04A·CSF12/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.630.880.380.930.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.880.780.560.291.29
vs Weaker (14)1.290.361.000.141.570.57
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L03L11D20W21W31W20W30W21WA·FLO26/10H·PET30/10H·SHE02/11A·DAC09/11H·SPA23/11A·ZIM08/03H·PET16/03A·CSF29/03A·SPA06/04A·SHE13/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.901.310.851.240.94
vs Stronger (6)0.671.330.502.000.751.00
vs Similar (11)1.001.271.200.800.831.67
vs Weaker (13)1.770.381.670.501.860.29
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZimbruZimbru

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D10W10W10W12L00D21W12L10WH·FLO20/10A·SHE27/10H·DAC03/11A·SPA10/11H·PET23/11H·MIL08/03A·SHE15/03H·SPA30/03H·PET06/04A·CSF12/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.671.310.620.710.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.811.001.000.780.571.29
vs Weaker (14)1.290.291.710.430.860.14
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Zimbru have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's attack is €1m less valuable than Zimbru's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Zimbru have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Zimbru have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
MO wins
1
Draws
2
ZIM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Milsami Orhei vs Zimbru · H/A from MO
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25AZimbru Vs MO1-2
06/10/24HMO Vs Zimbru3-1
11/08/24AZimbru Vs MO4-1
21/04/24AZimbru Vs MO3-1
10/03/24HMO Vs Zimbru0-0
07/10/23HMO Vs Zimbru1-0
06/08/23AZimbru Vs MO0-1
30/04/23AZimbru Vs MO0-1

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25ASheriff Tiraspol Vs MO2-2
06/04/25ASpartanii Selemet Vs MO1-6
29/03/25ACSF Bălți Vs MO0-2
16/03/25HMO Vs Petrocub5-1
08/03/25AZimbru Vs MO1-2
23/11/24HMO Vs Spartanii Selemet3-0
09/11/24ADacia-Buiucani Vs MO1-1
02/11/24HMO Vs Sheriff Tiraspol0-4
30/10/24HMO Vs Petrocub0-2
26/10/24AFloreşti Vs MO0-5

ZimbruZimbru

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/25ACSF Bălți Vs ZIM0-2
06/04/25HZIM Vs Petrocub3-2
30/03/25HZIM Vs Spartanii Selemet3-1
15/03/25ASheriff Tiraspol Vs ZIM0-0
08/03/25HZIM Vs Milsami Orhei1-2
23/11/24HZIM Vs Petrocub1-0
10/11/24ASpartanii Selemet Vs ZIM1-3
03/11/24HZIM Vs Dacia-Buiucani1-0
27/10/24ASheriff Tiraspol Vs ZIM4-2
20/10/24HZIM Vs Floreşti4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.56
HomeWLLWW1.87
AwayDWWWD1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%37%
AVG goals2.902.703.07
Over 1.5 %80%78%81%
Over 2.5 %58%48%67%
Over 3.5 %30%26%33%
Scored1.701.911.52
Conceded1.200.781.56
BTTS50%39%59%
Clean Sheet28%43%15%
Corners8.5010.007.00
Cards6.504.009.00
Zimbru
Zimbru
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.64
HomeWWLWW1.88
AwayLLWDW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%60%40%
AVG goals2.782.802.76
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.561.761.36
Conceded1.221.041.40
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet40%40%40%
Corners11.5011.5011.50
Cards4.004.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol2456
67%
2.3
5012+38
2.6
67%
46%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3132.10.5
-
2ZimbruZimbru2445
58%
1.9
5425+29
3.3
79%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2112.21.0
-
3Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei2442
50%
1.8
5526+29
3.4
92%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.31.1
-
4Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani2439
46%
1.6
4622+24
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.90.9
-
5PetrocubPetrocub2437
42%
1.5
4026+14
2.8
79%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.1
-
6SaxanSaxan1332
77%
2.5
488+40
4.3
100%
69%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.6
-
7CSF BălțiCSF Bălți2428
29%
1.2
2733-6
2.5
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.4
-
8FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni1119
55%
1.7
1715+2
2.9
73%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
9Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet2416
12%
0.7
2155-34
3.2
75%
58%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
10Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1215
42%
1.2
2423+1
3.9
92%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.9
-
11Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni49
75%
2.2
65+1
2.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12FăleştiFăleşti129
25%
0.8
1432-18
3.8
92%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.7
-
13IskraIskra23
50%
1.5
36-3
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.0
-
14FloreştiFloreşti251
0%
0.0
3115-112
4.7
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.14.6
-
15Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
16FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
17Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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