Mingəçvir’s home form has been uneven, and the model favours an away win. The expected total of goals sits at three, with the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 12.1%. Mingəçvir, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded; Baku Sportinq, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The probabilities of the match result are 30% for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 44% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Under 5.5 (91.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.2%), Away +2 handicap (86.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.4%), and Over 1.5 (81.5%). Each pick is presented with its probability and, where provided, the edge percentage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mingəçevir win
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mingəçevir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.17
2.40
1.00
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (24)
1.75
1.21
2.25
1.17
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (3)
3.33
1.00
3.50
0.50
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.53
0.93
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.93
1.88
0.88
1.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
6.5%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
7.0%
6.5%
3.5%
1.4%
1
5.9%
12%
9.0%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.7%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.2%
3.6%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Mingəçevir is 0.07 points better than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Mingəçevir is 0.56 goals better than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Mingəçevir is 0.15 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mingəçevir or Draw
58.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
42%
covers Mingəçevir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir or Baku Sportinq
73.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
42%
covers Mingəçevir + Baku Sportinq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Baku Sportinq
68.0%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
42%
covers Draw + Baku Sportinq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mingəçevir, so a minus line means Mingəçevir give that many goals of a start and Baku Sportinq receive them. At -1, Mingəçevir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mingəçevir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -2
5.3%
Draw -2
9.6%
Baku Sportinq +2
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -1
14.9%
Draw -1
17.1%
Baku Sportinq +1
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +1
58.5%
Draw +1
20.0%
Baku Sportinq -1
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +2
78.4%
Draw +2
12.8%
Baku Sportinq -2
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mingəçevir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.40
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
0.62
1.08
0.50
0.33
0.75
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.25
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mingəçevir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (24)
1.04
0.58
1.17
0.67
0.92
0.50
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.47
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Şimal
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
MOIK