Mingəçvir are the clear favourites, with the model assigning an 82 % chance of a home win and a 12 % chance of a draw. The 6 % away win probability reflects Cəbrayıl’s recent struggles, having lost four straight games before a narrow 2-3 loss to Şimal. The model’s pick is a home victory, reinforced by Mingəçvir’s dominant home form: they average 2.0 goals scored and concede none against weaker opponents, while Cəbrayıl, playing away against stronger teams, concedes 2.33 goals per game and scores only 0.8.
The expected total is 3.9 goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 20 %. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for Mingəçvir, with a 10.2 % probability. Suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.1 %, a home +2 handicap at 98.3 %, home over 0.5 goals at 95.6 %, under 7.5 at 95.5 %, away under 2.5 goals at 95.5 %, home or draw at 94.3 %, home +1 handicap at 94.3 %, and over 1.5 at 90.6 %. The probabilities for the match outcome remain 82 % home win, 12 % draw, and 6 % away win.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mingəçevir win
82.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl win
5.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mingəçevir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.17
2.40
1.00
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (24)
1.75
1.21
2.25
1.17
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (3)
3.33
1.00
3.50
0.50
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (30)
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.8%
Under 2.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.8%
Under 3.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.2%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
8.0%
4-0
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
4-1
6.3%
1-0
5.8%
1-1
5.4%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Cəbrayıl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
1
5.8%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
2
9.8%
7.7%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
3
10%
8.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
8.0%
6.3%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Cəbrayıl goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Mingəçevir is 1.00 points better than Cəbrayıl in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Mingəçevir is 0.56 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Mingəçevir is 1.07 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mingəçevir or Draw
94.3%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
6%
covers Mingəçevir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir or Cəbrayıl
88.1%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
6%
covers Mingəçevir + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cəbrayıl
17.6%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
6%
covers Draw + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
95.6%
Under
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mingəçevir, so a minus line means Mingəçevir give that many goals of a start and Cəbrayıl receive them. At -1, Mingəçevir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mingəçevir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -2
44.4%
Draw -2
20.7%
Cəbrayıl +2
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -1
65.1%
Draw -1
17.4%
Cəbrayıl +1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +1
94.3%
Draw +1
4.0%
Cəbrayıl -1
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +2
98.3%
Draw +2
1.3%
Cəbrayıl -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mingəçevir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.40
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
0.62
1.08
0.50
0.33
0.75
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mingəçevir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (24)
1.04
0.58
1.17
0.67
0.92
0.50
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Cəbrayıl have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Cəbrayıl have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Cəbrayıl have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Şimal
Zaqatala
MOIK
Baku Sportinq