PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Mingəçevir vs Difai Ağsu Result & Analysis

Date: 29/02/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Vs
44%
28%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu win✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L10W01L03L31W00D01L01L01LA·MOI26/10H·İRƏ01/11A·DIF09/11H·ZAQ23/11A·QAR07/12H·ARA14/12A·IMI25/12H·ŞAM08/02H·MOI14/02A·İRƏ22/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.600.711.290.621.88
vs Stronger (28)0.641.610.671.250.621.88
vs Similar (2)1.001.501.001.50--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L02L01L13L24L10W25L40W01L00DH·IMI25/10A·ŞAM01/11H·MIN09/11A·İRƏ22/11A·ZAQ06/12H·KAR13/12A·QAR26/12H·ARA08/02A·IMI14/02H·ŞAM22/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.000.621.001.003.14
vs Stronger (3)0.673.000.002.002.005.00
vs Similar (9)0.891.781.250.750.602.60
vs Weaker (3)0.671.670.000.502.004.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
7.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.4%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Difai Ağsu goals →
01234
07.8%6.7%4.7%1.8%0.5%
18.9%13%7.1%2.8%0.8%
27.7%9.2%5.4%2.1%0.6%
33.9%4.7%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.5%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Difai Ağsu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Mingəçevir is 0.15 points better than Difai Ağsu in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Mingəçevir is 0.48 goals worse than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Mingəçevir is 0.15 goals better than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D00D00D10W00D00D01L01LA·MOI26/10H·İRƏ01/11A·DIF09/11H·ZAQ23/11A·QAR07/12H·ARA14/12A·IMI25/12H·ŞAM08/02H·MOI14/02A·İRƏ22/02
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.500.290.430.310.56
vs Stronger (28)0.290.540.250.500.310.56
vs Similar (2)0.500.000.500.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L00D00D10W00D12L20W00D00DH·IMI25/10A·ŞAM01/11H·MIN09/11A·İRƏ22/11A·ZAQ06/12H·KAR13/12A·QAR26/12H·ARA08/02A·IMI14/02H·ŞAM22/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.530.250.500.430.57
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.330.440.500.500.200.40
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W01L03L21W00D01L00D00DA·MOI26/10H·İRƏ01/11A·DIF09/11H·ZAQ23/11A·QAR07/12H·ARA14/12A·IMI25/12H·ŞAM08/02H·MOI14/02A·İRƏ22/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.100.430.860.311.31
vs Stronger (28)0.361.070.420.750.311.31
vs Similar (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D01L13L14L10W13L20W01L00DH·IMI25/10A·ŞAM01/11H·MIN09/11A·İRƏ22/11A·ZAQ06/12H·KAR13/12A·QAR26/12H·ARA08/02A·IMI14/02H·ŞAM22/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.470.380.500.572.57
vs Stronger (3)0.331.670.001.001.003.00
vs Similar (9)0.561.330.750.250.402.20
vs Weaker (3)0.331.670.000.501.004.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
MIN wins
0
Draws
0
DA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs Difai Ağsu · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/23ADifai Ağsu Vs MIN0-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/24Aİrəvan Vs MIN1-0
14/02/24HMIN Vs MOIK0-1
08/02/24HMIN Vs Şamaxı FK0-1
25/12/23AImisli FK Vs MIN0-0
14/12/23HMIN Vs Araz Saatlı3-1
07/12/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs MIN3-0
23/11/23HMIN Vs Zaqatala0-1
09/11/23ADifai Ağsu Vs MIN0-1
01/11/23HMIN Vs İrəvan0-2
26/10/23AMOIK Vs MIN3-0

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/24HDA Vs Şamaxı FK0-0
14/02/24AImisli FK Vs DA1-0
08/02/24HDA Vs Araz Saatlı4-0
26/12/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs DA5-2
13/12/23HDA Vs Karvan1-0
06/12/23AZaqatala Vs DA4-2
22/11/23Aİrəvan Vs DA3-1
09/11/23HDA Vs Mingəçevir0-1
01/11/23AŞamaxı FK Vs DA2-0
25/10/23HDA Vs Imisli FK0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL0.72
HomeLLWLL0.86
AwayLWLDL0.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%19%18%
AVG goals2.632.432.82
Over 1.5 %74%76%73%
Over 2.5 %47%29%64%
Over 3.5 %26%24%27%
Scored0.860.860.86
Conceded1.771.571.95
BTTS37%43%32%
Clean Sheet14%10%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD0.53
HomeLLWWD1.00
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%25%0%
AVG goals2.801.624.14
Over 1.5 %60%38%86%
Over 2.5 %47%38%57%
Over 3.5 %33%12%57%
Scored0.800.621.00
Conceded2.001.003.14
BTTS27%0%57%
Clean Sheet27%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches