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Mingəçevir vs Difai Ağsu Result & Analysis

Date: 28/02/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 1-0
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Vs
31%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L33D13L00D05L02L12L11D00D10WH·BAK08/11A·DIF28/11A·ARA03/12H·IMI13/12A·KAR19/12H·QAB24/12A·ZAQ31/01H·QAR07/02H·CƏB13/02A·BAK20/02
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.600.791.070.752.06
vs Stronger (23)0.741.700.801.200.692.08
vs Similar (5)1.201.201.001.001.501.50
vs Weaker (2)0.001.500.000.000.003.00
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-624L33D06L20W01L01L33D01L11D21WA·QAR06/11H·MIN28/11A·NEF04/12A·BAK11/12A·IMI19/12H·MOI24/12A·KAR30/01H·QAB06/02A·ZAQ14/02H·QAR20/02
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.631.531.531.271.73
vs Stronger (10)1.302.201.001.251.502.83
vs Similar (13)1.231.381.331.831.141.00
vs Weaker (7)1.861.292.201.401.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
Under 2.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.4%
0-1
10.4%
1-0 ✓
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.6%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Difai Ağsu goals →
01234
010%10%7.5%3.2%1.0%
18.8%14%8.4%3.6%1.1%
25.6%7.2%4.6%2.0%0.6%
32.1%2.7%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Difai Ağsu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Mingəçevir is 0.33 points better than Difai Ağsu in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 0.96).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Mingəçevir is 0.22 goals worse than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Mingəçevir is 0.59 goals better than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L00D01L01L01L11D00D00DH·BAK08/11A·DIF28/11A·ARA03/12H·IMI13/12A·KAR19/12H·QAB24/12A·ZAQ31/01H·QAR07/02H·CƏB13/02A·BAK20/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.730.290.640.190.81
vs Stronger (23)0.220.780.300.800.150.77
vs Similar (5)0.400.600.330.330.501.00
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L03L10W00D00D32W00D01L21WA·QAR06/11H·MIN28/11A·NEF04/12A·BAK11/12A·IMI19/12H·MOI24/12A·KAR30/01H·QAB06/02A·ZAQ14/02H·QAR20/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.800.400.730.73
vs Stronger (10)0.900.801.000.500.831.00
vs Similar (13)0.690.460.670.500.710.43
vs Weaker (7)0.710.430.800.200.501.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D23L11D00D04L01L11D00D00D10WH·BAK08/11A·DIF28/11A·ARA03/12H·IMI13/12A·KAR19/12H·QAB24/12A·ZAQ31/01H·QAR07/02H·CƏB13/02A·BAK20/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.500.430.561.25
vs Stronger (23)0.520.910.500.400.541.31
vs Similar (5)0.800.600.670.671.000.50
vs Weaker (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W32W03L10W01L01L01L01L10W00DA·QAR06/11H·MIN28/11A·NEF04/12A·BAK11/12A·IMI19/12H·MOI24/12A·KAR30/01H·QAB06/02A·ZAQ14/02H·QAR20/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.731.130.531.00
vs Stronger (10)0.401.400.000.750.671.83
vs Similar (13)0.540.920.671.330.430.57
vs Weaker (7)1.140.861.401.200.500.00
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
MIN wins
2
Draws
1
DA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs Difai Ağsu · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
28/11/24ADifai Ağsu Vs MIN3-3
01/05/24ADifai Ağsu Vs MIN4-1
29/02/24HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu1-1
09/11/23ADifai Ağsu Vs MIN0-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/02/25ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN0-1
13/02/25HMIN Vs Cəbrayıl0-0
07/02/25HMIN Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan1-1
31/01/25AZaqatala Vs MIN2-1
24/12/24HMIN Vs Qabala0-2
19/12/24AKarvan Vs MIN5-0
13/12/24HMIN Vs Imisli FK0-0
03/12/24AAraz Vs MIN3-1
28/11/24ADifai Ağsu Vs MIN3-3
08/11/24HMIN Vs Baku Sportinq1-2

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/02/25HDA Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan2-1
14/02/25AZaqatala Vs DA1-1
06/02/25HDA Vs Qabala0-1
30/01/25AKarvan Vs DA3-3
24/12/24HDA Vs MOIK0-1
19/12/24AImisli FK Vs DA1-0
11/12/24ABaku Sportinq Vs DA0-2
04/12/24ANeftchi Baku Vs DA6-0
28/11/24HDA Vs Mingəçevir3-3
06/11/24AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs DA4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW0.90
HomeLDLDD0.96
AwayDLLLW0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%21%23%
AVG goals2.281.832.69
Over 1.5 %62%54%69%
Over 2.5 %40%21%58%
Over 3.5 %24%17%31%
Scored0.740.710.77
Conceded1.541.121.92
BTTS38%38%38%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDW0.84
HomeWDLLW1.09
AwayLWLDD0.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%27%9%
AVG goals3.022.683.36
Over 1.5 %70%64%77%
Over 2.5 %55%55%55%
Over 3.5 %43%36%50%
Scored1.231.271.18
Conceded1.801.412.18
BTTS48%41%55%
Clean Sheet20%23%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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