Mingəçevir vs MOIK Result & Analysis

Date: 15/05/2026

Time: 13:00

Final 3-1

Mingəçevir

62%

23%

15%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

MOIK

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Mingəçevir a 62% win probability against MOIK in the Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta on 2026-05-15, with 23% for the draw and 15% for MOIK. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Mingəçevir finished 3-1 against MOIK (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 62% home win, 23% draw and 15% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win✓ Hit

61.6%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

23.0%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

MOIK win✗ Miss

15.4%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.2

Avg scored

2.2

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.03	0.93	2.20	0.87	1.87	1.00
vs Stronger (22)	2.05	0.86	2.18	1.00	1.91	0.73
vs Similar (5)	2.00	1.20	2.33	0.67	1.50	2.00
vs Weaker (3)	2.00	1.00	2.00	0.00	2.00	1.50
Clean sheet %	37% (+6pp vs league)

This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.7

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.40	1.15	1.23	0.88	1.53
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	3.00	0.00	2.00	0.50	3.50
vs Similar (9)	0.44	1.11	0.33	1.00	0.50	1.17
vs Weaker (18)	1.39	1.28	1.56	1.22	1.22	1.33
Clean sheet %	17% (-14pp vs league)

This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

79.3%

Under 1.5

20.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

55.1%

Under 2.5

44.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

32.8%

Under 3.5

67.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

52.3%

47.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

11.0%

2-0

11.0%

1-0

10.1%

2-1

9.9%

3-0

7.3%

0-0

6.6%

3-1 ✓

6.6%

1-2

4.5%

Mingəçevir goals ↓

	MOIK goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	4.0%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
1	10%	11%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11%	9.9%	4.5%	1.3%	0.3%
3	7.3%	6.6%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
4	3.6%	3.3%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = MOIK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Safa Baku

2.11

Mingəçevir

1.89

Səbail

1.85

Baku Sportinq

1.81

Şahdağ

1.59

MOIK

1.22

Zaqatala

1.04

Cəbrayıl

0.89

Şimal

0.82

Difai Ağsu

0.67

Qaradağ Lökbatan

0.00

Mingəçevir is 0.67 points better than MOIK in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Mingəçevir

2.04

Safa Baku

1.93

Səbail

1.70

Baku Sportinq

1.48

Cəbrayıl

1.48

Şahdağ

1.33

MOIK

1.22

Difai Ağsu

1.04

Zaqatala

1.00

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.00

Şimal

0.89

Mingəçevir is 0.81 goals better than MOIK in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Safa Baku

0.78

Səbail

0.78

Baku Sportinq

0.85

Şahdağ

1.00

Mingəçevir

1.00

MOIK

1.48

Zaqatala

1.63

Qaradağ Lökbatan

2.00

Cəbrayıl

2.07

Şimal

2.21

Difai Ağsu

2.22

Mingəçevir is 0.48 goals better than MOIK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	79.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (25)

€4m

SƏB (30)

€0m

MIN (20)

€0m

ZAQ (23)

€0m

CƏB (23)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (0)

€0m

CƏB (0)

€0m

MIN (0)

€0m

SƏB (0)

€0m

ZAQ (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (0)

€0m

CƏB (0)

€0m

MIN (0)

€0m

SƏB (0)

€0m

ZAQ (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (0)

€0m

CƏB (0)

€0m

MIN (0)

€0m

SƏB (0)

€0m

ZAQ (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs MOIK · H/A from MIN

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/02/26	H	MIN Vs MOIK	2-0
20/11/25	A	MOIK Vs MIN	0-3
16/05/25	A	MOIK Vs MIN	1-3
14/03/25	H	MIN Vs MOIK	1-0
13/09/24	A	MOIK Vs MIN	1-2
17/04/24	A	MOIK Vs MIN	3-1
14/02/24	H	MIN Vs MOIK	0-1
26/10/23	A	MOIK Vs MIN	3-0

Mingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
05/05/26	A	Şahdağ Vs MIN	2-0
29/04/26	H	MIN Vs Zaqatala	7-1
22/04/26	A	Cəbrayıl Vs MIN	2-1
16/04/26	H	MIN Vs Difai Ağsu	2-1
09/04/26	A	Şimal Vs MIN	0-3
03/04/26	H	MIN Vs Safa Baku	5-2
18/03/26	A	Baku Sportinq Vs MIN	1-1
12/03/26	H	MIN Vs Səbail	0-1
05/03/26	A	Baku Sportinq Vs MIN	0-1
25/02/26	H	MIN Vs MOIK	2-0

MOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
06/05/26	A	Şimal Vs MOI	1-1
29/04/26	H	MOI Vs Şahdağ	0-1
22/04/26	A	Safa Baku Vs MOI	3-0
15/04/26	H	MOI Vs Zaqatala	2-1
08/04/26	A	Baku Sportinq Vs MOI	3-1
02/04/26	H	MOI Vs Cəbrayıl	2-1
18/03/26	A	Səbail Vs MOI	2-2
12/03/26	A	Şahdağ Vs MOI	1-1
06/03/26	H	MOI Vs Difai Ağsu	2-1
25/02/26	A	Mingəçevir Vs MOI	2-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta

Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWLWL	1.54
Home	WLWWW	1.67
Away	WDWLL	1.42

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	42%	46%	38%
AVG goals	2.64	2.67	2.62
Over 1.5 %	74%	71%	77%
Over 2.5 %	48%	46%	50%
Over 3.5 %	28%	29%	27%
Scored	1.50	1.71	1.31
Conceded	1.14	0.96	1.31
BTTS	44%	50%	38%
Clean Sheet	38%	42%	35%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

MOIK

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta

Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWLLD	1.18
Home	WWWWL	1.52
Away	DDLLD	0.84

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	44%	20%
AVG goals	2.64	2.88	2.40
Over 1.5 %	72%	76%	68%
Over 2.5 %	56%	64%	48%
Over 3.5 %	30%	36%	24%
Scored	1.08	1.40	0.76
Conceded	1.56	1.48	1.64
BTTS	52%	60%	44%
Clean Sheet	18%	20%	16%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Safa Baku	27	57	59%	2.1	52	21	+31	2.7	74%	48%	26%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	0	0	0	1.9	0.8	-
2	Mingəçevir	27	51	56%	1.9	55	27	+28	3.0	85%	56%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
3	Səbail	27	50	52%	1.9	46	21	+25	2.5	59%	48%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	0.8	-
4	Baku Sportinq	27	49	48%	1.8	40	23	+17	2.3	70%	44%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.9	-
5	Şahdağ	27	43	44%	1.6	36	27	+9	2.3	63%	41%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.0	-
6	MOIK	27	33	33%	1.2	33	40	-7	2.7	81%	56%	30%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.5	-
7	Zaqatala	27	28	30%	1.0	27	44	-17	2.6	59%	52%	26%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.6	-
8	Cəbrayıl	27	24	26%	0.9	40	56	-16	3.6	81%	67%	52%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	2.1	-
9	Şimal	28	23	21%	0.8	25	62	-37	3.1	71%	54%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	2.2	-
10	Difai Ağsu	27	18	15%	0.7	28	60	-32	3.3	89%	70%	37%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	-
11	Qaradağ Lökbatan	1	0	0%	0.0	1	2	-1	3.0	100%	100%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches

Mingəçevir vs MOIK Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mingəçevir

MOIK

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir

MOIK

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature