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Mingəçevir vs Qaradağ Lökbatan Result & Analysis

Date: 21/09/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 0-2
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Vs
32%
33%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan win✓ Hit
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L03L11D12L10W02L02L01L11D14LA·KEŞ24/03A·SUM29/03H·ZIR05/04A·TUR11/04H·FK 17/04A·ARA26/04H·MOI04/05A·QAR16/05H·SƏB23/05A·KAR13/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.001.001.710.872.27
vs Stronger (27)0.892.000.921.690.862.29
vs Similar (2)1.502.002.002.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W31W00D30W10W02L00D10W11DH·KEŞ13/03A·KAP30/03A·SUM05/04A·ZIR11/04H·TUR17/04A·FK 25/04H·ARA04/05A·MOI09/05H·MIN16/05H·ŞAM15/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.831.530.670.571.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.900.901.450.820.301.00
vs Weaker (6)1.830.502.000.331.670.67
Clean sheet %48% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.0%
Under 1.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.6%
Under 2.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.2%
0-1
12.1%
1-0
11.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-2 ✓
7.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals →
01234
014%12%7.1%2.5%0.6%
112%15%7.1%2.5%0.6%
26.5%6.8%3.5%1.2%0.3%
32.2%2.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
40.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Mingəçevir is 1.00 points worse than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Mingəçevir is 0.96 goals worse than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.70).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Mingəçevir is 0.67 goals worse than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D01L10W01L01L00D01L01LA·KEŞ24/03A·SUM29/03H·ZIR05/04A·TUR11/04H·FK 17/04A·ARA26/04H·MOI04/05A·QAR16/05H·SƏB23/05A·KAR13/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.720.500.640.470.80
vs Stronger (27)0.440.740.460.690.430.79
vs Similar (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D20W10W02L00D00D00DH·KEŞ13/03A·KAP30/03A·SUM05/04A·ZIR11/04H·TUR17/04A·FK 25/04H·ARA04/05A·MOI09/05H·MIN16/05H·ŞAM15/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.340.670.270.070.43
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.290.330.450.360.100.30
vs Weaker (6)0.670.331.330.000.000.67
Clean sheet %76% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L03L11D11D00D01L01L01L10W13LA·KEŞ24/03A·SUM29/03H·ZIR05/04A·TUR11/04H·FK 17/04A·ARA26/04H·MOI04/05A·QAR16/05H·SƏB23/05A·KAR13/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.451.280.501.070.401.47
vs Stronger (27)0.441.260.461.000.431.50
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.002.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %28% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W00D10W00D00D00D10W11DH·KEŞ13/03A·KAP30/03A·SUM05/04A·ZIR11/04H·TUR17/04A·FK 25/04H·ARA04/05A·MOI09/05H·MIN16/05H·ŞAM15/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.480.870.400.500.57
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.571.000.450.200.70
vs Weaker (6)1.170.170.670.331.670.00
Clean sheet %59% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
MIN wins
0
Draws
2
QL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs Qaradağ Lökbatan · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs MIN1-0
10/12/22HMIN Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-2

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/23AKarvan Vs MIN4-1
23/05/23HMIN Vs Səbail II1-1
16/05/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs MIN1-0
04/05/23HMIN Vs MOIK0-2
26/04/23AAraz Vs MIN2-0
17/04/23HMIN Vs FK Qəbələ II1-0
11/04/23ATuran II Vs MIN2-1
05/04/23HMIN Vs Zira II1-1
29/03/23ASumqayıt II Vs MIN3-0
24/03/23AKeşlə II Vs MIN3-1

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/23HQL Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
16/05/23HQL Vs Mingəçevir1-0
09/05/23AMOIK Vs QL0-0
04/05/23HQL Vs Araz0-2
25/04/23AFK Qəbələ II Vs QL0-1
17/04/23HQL Vs Turan II3-0
11/04/23AZira II Vs QL0-0
05/04/23ASumqayıt II Vs QL1-3
30/03/23AKapaz II Vs QL0-1
13/03/23HQL Vs Keşlə II0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.59
HomeDDWLD1.00
AwayLLLLL0.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%21%7%
AVG goals2.932.713.13
Over 1.5 %83%86%80%
Over 2.5 %55%36%73%
Over 3.5 %31%29%33%
Scored0.931.000.87
Conceded2.001.712.27
BTTS45%50%40%
Clean Sheet10%14%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWD1.45
HomeLWLWD1.80
AwayWWDWD1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%53%29%
AVG goals1.902.201.57
Over 1.5 %52%53%50%
Over 2.5 %31%40%21%
Over 3.5 %14%20%7%
Scored1.071.530.57
Conceded0.830.671.00
BTTS21%27%14%
Clean Sheet48%53%43%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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