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Mingəçevir vs Şahdağ Prediction & Stats

Date: 04/11/2026
Time: 15:00
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Vs
30%
28%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of Şahdağ taking the points. Home side Mingəçevir, who have struggled recently after a 0-2 loss to Qabala, will face a stronger opponent at home and have averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded in such matches. Şahdağ, unbeaten in their last five games, have been more efficient away, scoring 1.12 and conceding only 0.75 against weaker opposition.

The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability. Home win probability stands at 30%, draw at 28%, and away win at 42%.

Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (93.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.9%), Away +2 handicap (86.8%), and Under 4.5 (85.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ win
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D52W30W21W12L71W02L31W41W02LA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.172.401.001.471.33
vs Stronger (24)1.751.212.251.171.251.25
vs Similar (3)3.331.003.500.503.002.00
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W00D10W10W20W00D11D10WA·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04H·MIN05/05A·SƏB15/05H·BAK22/05A·MOI03/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.971.641.070.940.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.001.361.001.801.001.00
vs Weaker (19)1.420.742.000.670.900.80
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
8.5%
0-2
7.6%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
5.3%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Şahdağ goals →
01234
08.5%9.2%7.6%3.6%1.3%
17.3%14%8.9%4.3%1.6%
25.0%7.3%5.3%2.5%0.9%
32.0%2.9%2.1%1.0%0.4%
40.6%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Şahdağ goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Mingəçevir is 0.30 points better than Şahdağ in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.59).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Mingəçevir is 0.70 goals better than Şahdağ in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Mingəçevir and Şahdağ are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mingəçevir or Draw
58.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
28%
42%
covers Mingəçevir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir or Şahdağ
71.6%
Avg Implied -
30%
28%
42%
covers Mingəçevir + Şahdağ
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şahdağ
70.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
28%
42%
covers Draw + Şahdağ
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Mingəçevir, so a minus line means Mingəçevir give that many goals of a start and Şahdağ receive them. At -1, Mingəçevir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mingəçevir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -2
4.0%
Draw -2
8.6%
Şahdağ +2
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -1
12.6%
Draw -1
17.0%
Şahdağ +1
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +1
58.1%
Draw +1
21.1%
Şahdağ -1
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +2
79.2%
Draw +2
12.9%
Şahdağ -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D10W02L20W01L30W21W02LA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.070.400.530.93
vs Stronger (24)0.710.621.080.500.330.75
vs Similar (3)1.330.671.000.002.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W00D00D00D10W00D01L10WA·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04H·MIN05/05A·SƏB15/05H·BAK22/05A·MOI03/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.710.640.560.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.401.200.330.50
vs Weaker (19)0.790.470.890.330.700.60
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D42W30W11D10W51W01L01L20W00DA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.330.600.930.40
vs Stronger (24)1.040.581.170.670.920.50
vs Similar (3)2.000.332.500.501.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D00D10W10W10W00D10W00DA·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04H·MIN05/05A·SƏB15/05H·BAK22/05A·MOI03/09
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.370.930.430.380.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.640.550.600.600.670.50
vs Weaker (19)0.630.261.110.330.200.20
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 5.594.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals88.4%-------
Under 4.587.4%-------
Away +2 handicap87.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals82.3%-------
Home +2 handicap79.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals76.4%-------
Over 1.575.0%-------
Under 3.573.1%-------
Home or Away71.6%-------
Draw or Away70.4%-------
Away +1 handicap70.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
MIN wins
2
Draws
1
ŞAH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs Şahdağ · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/26AŞahdağ Vs MIN2-0
24/12/25HMIN Vs Şahdağ1-1
01/10/25AŞahdağ Vs MIN0-0

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/26AQabala Vs MIN2-0
22/05/26HMIN Vs Səbail4-1
15/05/26HMIN Vs MOIK3-1
05/05/26AŞahdağ Vs MIN2-0
29/04/26HMIN Vs Zaqatala7-1
22/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs MIN2-1
16/04/26HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
09/04/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
03/04/26HMIN Vs Safa Baku5-2
18/03/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN1-1

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AMOIK Vs ŞAH0-1
22/05/26HŞAH Vs Baku Sportinq1-1
15/05/26ASəbail Vs ŞAH0-0
05/05/26HŞAH Vs Mingəçevir2-0
29/04/26AMOIK Vs ŞAH0-1
22/04/26AZaqatala Vs ŞAH0-1
15/04/26HŞAH Vs Cəbrayıl0-0
09/04/26ADifai Ağsu Vs ŞAH0-3
03/04/26HŞAH Vs Şimal1-0
18/03/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞAH1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.64
HomeWWWWW1.92
AwayDWLLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.802.712.88
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.621.881.38
Conceded1.180.831.50
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.52
HomeDWDWD1.53
AwayWWWDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.292.801.81
Over 1.5 %61%73%50%
Over 2.5 %42%47%38%
Over 3.5 %23%40%6%
Scored1.231.530.94
Conceded1.061.270.88
BTTS42%47%38%
Clean Sheet42%40%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
3SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
4Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5MingəçevirMingəçevir00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6ŞimalŞimal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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