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Mingəçevir vs Şimal Prediction & Stats

Date: 14/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Vs
50%
22%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Şimal
Şimal
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Mingəçvir, riding from a recent defeat yet boasting a strong home attack, is set to dominate Şimal, whose away form is comparatively weak. The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance, a 22% draw and a 30% away win. The expected total is 3.8 goals, and the most likely total is three, with a 20% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 8.8%. Mingəçvir averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Şimal averages 2.0 scored and 3.75 conceded away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.2%), Under 6.5 (91.0%), Over 1.5 (90.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.1%), Home +2 handicap (85.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (83.3%) and Under 5.5 (81.6%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şimal win
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-752W30W21W12L71W02L31W41W02L22DH·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05H·ZAQ04/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.202.401.071.471.33
vs Stronger (23)1.741.222.271.181.251.25
vs Similar (4)3.001.253.001.003.002.00
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L04L10W00D11D01L32W21W12LA·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04H·MOI06/05H·DIF14/05A·CƏB21/05H·QAR27/05H·CƏB04/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.872.130.591.531.232.92
vs Stronger (14)0.571.430.620.880.502.17
vs Similar (6)1.002.500.331.671.673.33
vs Weaker (10)1.202.900.672.332.003.75
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.2%
Under 1.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.4%
Under 2.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.1%
No
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
5.3%
3-2
5.1%
1-0
4.0%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Şimal goals →
01234
03.0%2.8%2.9%1.6%0.6%
14.0%8.6%6.4%3.5%1.4%
25.3%8.6%7.0%3.8%1.5%
33.9%6.3%5.1%2.8%1.1%
42.1%3.4%2.8%1.5%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Şimal goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Mingəçevir is 1.07 points better than Şimal in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 0.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Mingəçevir is 1.14 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Mingəçevir is 1.21 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.21).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mingəçevir or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
28%
covers Mingəçevir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir or Şimal
77.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
28%
covers Mingəçevir + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şimal
50.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
28%
covers Draw + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
88.8%
Under
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
64.3%
Under
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Mingəçevir, so a minus line means Mingəçevir give that many goals of a start and Şimal receive them. At -1, Mingəçevir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mingəçevir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -2
15.4%
Draw -2
15.1%
Şimal +2
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir -1
30.5%
Draw -1
19.5%
Şimal +1
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +1
72.1%
Draw +1
14.3%
Şimal -1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mingəçevir)
Mingəçevir +2
86.3%
Draw +2
8.3%
Şimal -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W02L20W01L30W21W02L11DH·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05H·ZAQ04/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.701.070.470.530.93
vs Stronger (23)0.700.651.090.550.330.75
vs Similar (4)1.250.751.000.332.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞimalŞimal

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D01L10W00D10W00D01L00D11DA·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04H·MOI06/05H·DIF14/05A·CƏB21/05H·QAR27/05H·CƏB04/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.870.350.530.311.31
vs Stronger (14)0.290.570.380.250.171.00
vs Similar (6)0.171.000.330.670.001.33
vs Weaker (10)0.501.200.330.830.751.75
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-542W30W11D10W51W01L01L20W00D11DH·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05H·ZAQ04/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.330.600.930.40
vs Stronger (23)1.040.571.180.640.920.50
vs Similar (4)1.750.502.000.671.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞimalŞimal

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L03L00D00D01L01L31W21W01LA·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04H·MOI06/05H·DIF14/05A·CƏB21/05H·QAR27/05H·CƏB04/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.270.241.000.921.62
vs Stronger (14)0.290.860.250.620.331.17
vs Similar (6)0.831.500.001.001.672.00
vs Weaker (10)0.701.700.331.501.252.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.595.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.8%-------
Under 6.590.7%-------
Over 1.590.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals88.8%-------
Home +2 handicap86.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals82.1%-------
Under 5.581.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.3%-------
Home or Away77.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals77.7%-------
Over 2.573.4%-------
BTTS Yes72.1%-------
Home or Draw72.1%-------
Home +1 handicap72.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
MIN wins
0
Draws
0
ŞIM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs Şimal · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
07/02/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
16/10/25HMIN Vs Şimal3-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26HMIN Vs Zaqatala2-2
28/05/26AQabala Vs MIN2-0
22/05/26HMIN Vs Səbail4-1
15/05/26HMIN Vs MOIK3-1
05/05/26AŞahdağ Vs MIN2-0
29/04/26HMIN Vs Zaqatala7-1
22/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs MIN2-1
16/04/26HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
09/04/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
03/04/26HMIN Vs Safa Baku5-2

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26HŞIM Vs Cəbrayıl1-2
27/05/26HŞIM Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan2-1
21/05/26ACəbrayıl Vs ŞIM2-3
14/05/26HŞIM Vs Difai Ağsu0-1
06/05/26HŞIM Vs MOIK1-1
29/04/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞIM0-0
23/04/26HŞIM Vs Baku Sportinq1-0
16/04/26ASəbail Vs ŞIM4-0
09/04/26HŞIM Vs Mingəçevir0-3
03/04/26AŞahdağ Vs ŞIM1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.64
HomeWWWWD1.88
AwayDWLLL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%40%
AVG goals2.762.762.76
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.601.881.32
Conceded1.160.881.44
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Şimal
Şimal
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL0.77
HomeWDLWL0.82
AwayWLLDW0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%18%21%
AVG goals3.032.124.14
Over 1.5 %71%59%86%
Over 2.5 %55%41%71%
Over 3.5 %42%18%71%
Scored0.870.591.21
Conceded2.161.532.93
BTTS45%35%57%
Clean Sheet16%24%7%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
3SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
4Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5MingəçevirMingəçevir00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6ŞimalŞimal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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