This opponent (Zaqatala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.64
1.07
0.81
1.44
vs Stronger (25)
1.24
1.36
1.69
1.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
10.1%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.3%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
8.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.6%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.5%
3.9%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Mingəçevir is 1.50 points better than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
MOIK
2.00
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Mingəçevir is 1.00 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
MOIK
1.00
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zira
1.33
Turan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Karvan
3.00
Şimal
3.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Mingəçevir is 0.50 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mingəçevir or Draw✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Mingəçevir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir or Zaqatala✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Mingəçevir + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zaqatala✗ Miss
59.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mingəçevir, so a minus line means Mingəçevir give that many goals of a start and Zaqatala receive them. At -1, Mingəçevir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mingəçevir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mingəçevir)Actual: Zaqatala
Mingəçevir -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.4%
Zaqatala +2
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mingəçevir)Actual: Draw
Mingəçevir -1
19.5%
Draw -1
21.2%
Zaqatala +1
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mingəçevir)Actual: Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir +1
70.3%
Draw +1
17.4%
Zaqatala -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mingəçevir)Actual: Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.5%
Zaqatala -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mingəçevir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.67
0.29
0.57
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
0.68
0.36
0.64
0.21
0.71
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.71
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (25)
0.52
0.60
0.62
0.69
0.42
0.50
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mingəçevir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.57
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
0.44
0.80
0.55
0.55
0.36
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
1.00
0.36
0.44
1.06
vs Stronger (25)
0.72
0.76
1.08
0.31
0.33
1.25
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Zaqatala have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Zaqatala have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Zaqatala have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qabala
Imisli FK
Karvan
MOIK
Baku Sportinq
Cəbrayıl
Difai Ağsu
Qaradağ Lökbatan