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Minija vs Babrungas Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Minija
Minija
Vs
28%
28%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win for Babrungas, with a 47% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of a Minija win. The expected total of goals is 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Minija, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. Babrungas, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 2.33 scored and 0.73 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.4%), Away +2 handicap (89.9%), and Under 4.5 (87.3%). Minija’s recent form shows a four-game winning streak, while Babrungas comes off a win, setting the stage for a competitive match that the model predicts will end 1-1.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minija win
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-12120W22D11D21W01L40W30W50W21W32WA·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07H·BE108/08A·EKR14/08A·FA 28/08H·DAI01/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.371.071.792.311.00
vs Stronger (11)1.551.641.172.002.001.20
vs Similar (15)1.871.201.141.712.500.75
vs Weaker (4)1.751.250.001.002.331.33
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-920W90W01L20W20W10W12L40W11D10WA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.032.311.382.180.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.000.674.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)2.261.072.171.502.330.73
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.4%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
Minija goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
01234
08.4%9.6%8.1%4.0%1.5%
17.0%13%9.1%4.6%1.7%
24.6%6.9%5.2%2.6%1.0%
31.8%2.6%2.0%1.0%0.4%
40.5%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Minija is 0.11 points better than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 2.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Minija is 1.09 goals better than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Minija is 0.03 goals better than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 0.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minija or Draw
55.7%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Minija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija or Babrungas
71.8%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Minija + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Babrungas
72.5%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minija over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Minija, so a minus line means Minija give that many goals of a start and Babrungas receive them. At -1, Minija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minija)
Minija -2
3.5%
Draw -2
7.9%
Babrungas +2
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Minija)
Minija -1
11.4%
Draw -1
16.1%
Babrungas +1
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minija)
Minija +1
55.7%
Draw +1
21.7%
Babrungas -1
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minija)
Minija +2
77.4%
Draw +2
13.7%
Babrungas -2
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-880W10W00D10W01L10W10W10W00D01LA·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07H·BE108/08A·EKR14/08A·FA 28/08H·DAI01/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.360.711.120.44
vs Stronger (11)0.640.550.500.500.800.60
vs Similar (15)0.870.670.291.001.380.38
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W00D10W10W00D12L20W01L10WA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.230.690.940.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.070.561.170.751.000.40
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W12L11D11D00D30W20W40W21W31WA·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07H·BE108/08A·EKR14/08A·FA 28/08H·DAI01/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.800.711.071.190.56
vs Stronger (11)0.911.090.671.501.200.60
vs Similar (15)1.000.530.860.711.120.38
vs Weaker (4)1.001.000.001.001.331.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W50W01L10W10W10W00D20W10W00DA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.501.080.691.240.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.190.521.000.751.330.33
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.2%-------
Under 5.594.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.5%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.4%-------
Away +2 handicap88.6%-------
Under 4.587.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals81.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals77.6%-------
Home +2 handicap77.4%-------
Over 1.575.1%-------
Under 3.572.9%-------
Draw or Away72.5%-------
Away +1 handicap72.5%-------
Home or Away71.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
MIN wins
3
Draws
5
BAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Minija vs Babrungas · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/25HMIN Vs Babrungas0-1
08/03/25ABabrungas Vs MIN1-0
14/09/24HMIN Vs Babrungas0-4
26/04/24ABabrungas Vs MIN0-0
04/11/23HMIN Vs Babrungas1-3
23/06/23ABabrungas Vs MIN1-1
29/10/22HMIN Vs Babrungas1-1
24/06/22ABabrungas Vs MIN3-0

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/26HMIN Vs Dainava3-2
28/08/26AFA Šiauliai II Vs MIN1-2
14/08/26AEkranas Vs MIN0-5
08/08/26HMIN Vs Be1 NFA3-0
31/07/26AHegelmann II Vs MIN0-4
28/07/26AŽalgiris II Vs MIN1-0
23/06/26HMIN Vs Panevėžys2-1
19/05/26APempininkai Gargždai Vs MIN1-1
28/04/26HMIN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-2
12/04/26AGeležinis Vilkas Vs MIN0-12

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGarliava Vs BAB0-1
21/08/26HBAB Vs Tauras1-1
15/08/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BAB0-4
08/08/26ADainava Vs BAB2-1
03/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs BAB0-1
25/07/26HBAB Vs Ekranas2-0
19/07/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BAB0-2
28/04/26ABFA Vs BAB1-0
11/04/26ASaned Joniškis Vs BAB0-9
01/04/26ANemunas Vs BAB0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.40
HomeLDWWW1.17
AwayDLWWW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%50%
AVG goals2.722.502.92
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.401.001.77
Conceded1.321.501.15
BTTS36%38%35%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.90
HomeWWLWD1.90
AwayWWLWW1.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%57%55%
AVG goals3.223.483.03
Over 1.5 %80%86%76%
Over 2.5 %58%71%48%
Over 3.5 %34%43%28%
Scored2.082.102.07
Conceded1.141.380.97
BTTS56%71%45%
Clean Sheet40%29%48%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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