Minija, coming off a win, faces Be1 NFA, which has recovered from two straight defeats. The model predicts an away win, with Be1 NFA having a 43% chance of success, followed by a draw at 28%, and Minija winning at 29%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability.
Minija has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.25 goals and conceding 2.75, particularly against stronger opponents. Be1 NFA, on the other hand, has excelled away from home, scoring 2.22 goals and conceding 1.0 against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the away win. Additionally, the model suggests Over 1.5 goals at 77.4% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.1%. Minija has a 29% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 43% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Minija's 3-0 win over Be1 NFA extends their run of consecutive victories, following a 3-0 win over the same opponent in their previous meeting. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the predicted away win of Be1 NFA, which was the pre-match favourite with a 43% probability of success. The model's call was wrong, as the predicted favourite failed to come through. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.4% probability, hit, while Under 3.5 goals, with a 70.1% probability, also hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minija win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied 65.5% · @ 1.36
Edge
-36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.46
Dafabet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.23
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Dafabet
4.30
Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied 13.3% · @ 6.71
Edge
+29.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
0.87
1.60
2.07
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.58
0.86
1.86
2.00
1.20
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.07
0.83
1.67
2.38
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.00
2.00
1.53
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
2.33
1.00
4.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.54
1.42
1.00
1.64
2.00
1.23
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
@ 1.20+1.9%
Under 1.5
22.6%
@ 3.70-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.68-1.9%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.98+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.72-3.5%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.36+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Superbet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.89+8.7%
No
43.4%
@ 1.74-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.88
No
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 7.66+7.7%
1-2
9.1%@ 17.71+6.8%
0-1
8.5%@ 15.33+5.8%
0-0
7.5%@ 10.57+3.6%
0-2
7.4%@ 34.71+6.2%
2-1
7.3%@ 7.37+1.7%
1-0
6.6%@ 6.26+0.0%
2-2
5.6%@ 16.14+3.0%
Minija goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.5%
7.4%
3.8%
1.4%
1
6.6%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.8%
2
4.8%
7.3%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.0%
3.0%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Minija is 0.90 points better than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Minija is 1.13 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Minija is 1.10 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.27
0.67
1.20
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.58
0.29
0.57
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.64
0.33
1.00
1.50
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.54
0.77
0.59
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.71
0.54
0.64
0.55
0.77
0.54
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.93
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.00
0.57
1.29
1.20
0.60
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.67
0.88
0.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.46
1.23
0.94
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.17
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.83
0.88
0.36
1.09
1.23
0.69
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.4%
1.20
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
+3.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →