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Minija vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
Minija
Minija
Vs
29%
28%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Minija, coming off a win, faces Be1 NFA, which has recovered from two straight defeats. The model predicts an away win, with Be1 NFA having a 43% chance of success, followed by a draw at 28%, and Minija winning at 29%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability.

Minija has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.25 goals and conceding 2.75, particularly against stronger opponents. Be1 NFA, on the other hand, has excelled away from home, scoring 2.22 goals and conceding 1.0 against weaker opponents.

The model's selection is the away win. Additionally, the model suggests Over 1.5 goals at 77.4% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.1%. Minija has a 29% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 43% chance of losing.

Results analysis

Minija's 3-0 win over Be1 NFA extends their run of consecutive victories, following a 3-0 win over the same opponent in their previous meeting. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the predicted away win of Be1 NFA, which was the pre-match favourite with a 43% probability of success. The model's call was wrong, as the predicted favourite failed to come through. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.4% probability, hit, while Under 3.5 goals, with a 70.1% probability, also hit.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minija win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied 65.5% · @ 1.36
Edge
-36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.46
Dafabet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.23
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Dafabet
4.30
Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied 13.3% · @ 6.71
Edge
+29.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
7.20
Betfair
7.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1201L10W05L03L120W22D11D21W01L40WH·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11A·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.300.871.602.071.00
vs Stronger (12)1.331.580.861.862.001.20
vs Similar (14)1.711.070.831.672.380.62
vs Weaker (4)1.001.251.000.501.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D40W13L41W30W30W50W01L13L02LH·BFA26/09A·KAU05/10H·HEG17/10H·PAN24/10H·FA 31/10A·MIN09/11A·ŠIL11/04A·KLA28/04A·BFA26/07H·JON31/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.601.002.001.531.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.332.331.004.000.001.50
vs Weaker (24)1.541.421.001.642.001.23
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
@ 1.20+1.9%
Under 1.5
22.6%
@ 3.70-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.68-1.9%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.98+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.72-3.5%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.36+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Superbet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.89+8.7%
No
43.4%
@ 1.74-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.88
No
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 7.66+7.7%
1-2
9.1%@ 17.71+6.8%
0-1
8.5%@ 15.33+5.8%
0-0
7.5%@ 10.57+3.6%
0-2
7.4%@ 34.71+6.2%
2-1
7.3%@ 7.37+1.7%
1-0
6.6%@ 6.26+0.0%
2-2
5.6%@ 16.14+3.0%
Minija goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
07.5%8.5%7.4%3.8%1.4%
16.6%13%9.1%4.6%1.8%
24.8%7.3%5.6%2.9%1.1%
32.0%3.0%2.3%1.2%0.4%
40.6%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Minija is 0.90 points better than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Minija is 1.13 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Minija is 1.10 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D10W03L00D80W10W00D10W01L10WH·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11A·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.270.671.200.47
vs Stronger (12)0.500.580.290.570.800.60
vs Similar (14)1.000.640.331.001.500.38
vs Weaker (4)0.500.250.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W11D20W10W00D20W01L01L00DH·BFA26/09A·KAU05/10H·HEG17/10H·PAN24/10H·FA 31/10A·MIN09/11A·ŠIL11/04A·KLA28/04A·BFA26/07H·JON31/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.540.770.590.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.001.170.002.000.000.75
vs Weaker (24)0.710.540.640.550.770.54
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D02L03L40W12L11D11D00D30WH·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11A·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.600.930.870.53
vs Stronger (12)0.831.000.571.291.200.60
vs Similar (14)0.710.430.500.670.880.25
vs Weaker (4)0.501.001.000.500.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L21W20W30W30W00D12L02LH·BFA26/09A·KAU05/10H·HEG17/10H·PAN24/10H·FA 31/10A·MIN09/11A·ŠIL11/04A·KLA28/04A·BFA26/07H·JON31/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.461.230.940.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.331.171.002.000.000.75
vs Weaker (24)0.830.880.361.091.230.69
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%1.20
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-+1.9%✓ Hit
Under 3.570.1%1.36
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
+3.5%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
MIN wins
4
Draws
3
BN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Minija vs Be1 NFA · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HMIN Vs Be1 NFA0-3
27/06/25ABe1 NFA Vs MIN1-1
04/10/24ABe1 NFA Vs MIN5-0
18/05/24HMIN Vs Be1 NFA1-1
29/07/23HMIN Vs Be1 NFA2-1
11/03/23ABe1 NFA Vs MIN2-2
11/09/22ABe1 NFA Vs MIN2-1
14/05/22HMIN Vs Be1 NFA0-0

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26AHegelmann II Vs MIN0-4
28/07/26AŽalgiris II Vs MIN1-0
23/06/26HMIN Vs Panevėžys2-1
19/05/26APempininkai Gargždai Vs MIN1-1
28/04/26HMIN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-2
12/04/26AGeležinis Vilkas Vs MIN0-12
09/11/25HMIN Vs Be1 NFA0-3
31/10/25HMIN Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-5
24/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs MIN0-1
18/10/25HMIN Vs Jonava0-1

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26HBN Vs Jonava0-2
26/07/26ABFA Vs BN3-1
28/04/26AKlaipėdos FM Vs BN1-0
11/04/26AŠilutė Vs BN0-5
09/11/25AMinija Vs BN0-3
31/10/25HBN Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
24/10/25HBN Vs Panevėžys II4-1
17/10/25HBN Vs Hegelmann II1-3
05/10/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BN0-4
26/09/25HBN Vs BFA0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLW1.20
HomeLLLDW0.96
AwayWWDLW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%25%42%
AVG goals2.642.332.92
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.200.751.62
Conceded1.441.581.31
BTTS36%33%38%
Clean Sheet28%25%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.22
HomeDLWWL1.23
AwayWWWLL1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%36%
AVG goals2.722.772.68
Over 1.5 %72%82%64%
Over 2.5 %56%50%61%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.301.321.29
Conceded1.421.451.39
BTTS42%55%32%
Clean Sheet30%27%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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