Minija’s recent three-game winning streak fuels the model’s confidence in a home win, reflected in a 57 % probability versus 23 % for a draw and 20 % for an away victory. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively match, with the most probable total being three goals at a 22 % share. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.2 % chance, underscoring the balance between the sides. Minija averages one goal scored and 1.33 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Kauno Žalgiris II, playing away against stronger teams, nets 1.43 and concedes 2.29. The model’s suggested picks span a range of low-goal outcomes: Away under 2.5 HT goals98.9 %, Under 7.598.0 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals97.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals96.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals95.1 % with a 13 % edge, Under 6.594.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals92.9 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals91.8 %. These selections highlight the model’s belief that both teams will score fewer than the market expects, especially in the first half.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minija win
58.3%
Avg Implied 80.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Dafabet
1.12
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied 13.1% · @ 6.89
Edge
+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.82
1xBet
7.80
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Kauno Žalgiris II win
19.4%
Avg Implied 6.5% · @ 13.93
Edge
+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
19.00
William Hil
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Dafabet
15.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.07
1.79
2.31
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.55
1.64
1.17
2.00
2.00
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.20
1.14
1.71
2.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.94
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
2.04
1.57
1.93
1.38
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Under 1.5
14.8%
@ 5.50-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.3%
@ 1.43+0.2%
Under 2.5
35.7%
@ 2.54-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.69
Superbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Unibet
2.45
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.2%
@ 1.94-4.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
@ 1.68+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.66
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
@ 2.09+18.4%
No
38.1%
@ 1.60-18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
William Hil
2.10
BetVictor
1.73
No
BetVictor
1.62
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%@ 12.86+6.8%
2-1
9.8%@ 9.20+5.2%
2-0
8.3%@ 5.96+1.3%
3-1
7.0%@ 9.59+2.6%
1-0
6.9%@ 8.20+1.8%
3-0
5.9%@ 6.01-1.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 26.00+4.1%
1-2
5.4%@ 34.71+4.2%
Minija goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.4%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.9%
10%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.3%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.9%
7.0%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.2%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Minija is 0.90 points better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Minija is 0.97 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Minija is 1.27 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minija or Draw
80.6%
Avg Implied 92.2% · @ 1.02
Edge
-11.5%
58%
22%
19%
covers Minija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
William Hil
1.02
Minija or Kauno Žalgiris II
77.7%
Avg Implied 88.6% · @ 1.06
Edge
-10.8%
58%
22%
19%
covers Minija + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
41.7%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.88
Edge
+22.4%
58%
22%
19%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.10
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minija over/under 0.5
Over
88.2%
Under
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5
Over
62.9%
@ 1.21-12.9%
Under
37.1%
@ 3.80+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
3.80
Minija over/under 2.5
Over
36.0%
@ 1.64-20.2%
Under
64.0%
@ 2.10+20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.05
Minija over/under 3.5
Over
16.8%
@ 2.59-18.3%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.40+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.59
Under
1xBet
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
@ 2.13+26.1%
Under
30.8%
@ 1.61-26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.08
Under
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.58
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
@ 6.15+17.8%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.09-17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Under
1xBet
1.09
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
@ 11.00+3.1%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.01-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Minija, so a minus line means Minija give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, Minija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minija)
Minija -2
18.8%
@ 2.05-24.7%
Draw -2
17.9%
@ 3.83-5.5%
Kauno Žalgiris II +2
63.4%
@ 2.69+30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Draw
10Bet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Away
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.63
Handicap -1 (Minija)
Minija -1
36.6%
Draw -1
21.7%
Kauno Žalgiris II +1
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minija)
Minija +1
80.6%
Draw +1
11.6%
Kauno Žalgiris II -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minija)
Minija +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.4%
Kauno Žalgiris II -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.36
0.71
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.29
1.00
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.31
1.19
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
0.93
0.36
1.14
1.08
0.69
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.1%
@ 1.19-4.4%
Under 0.5
26.9%
@ 4.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 1.94-12.0%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.68+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.98
Under
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 4.27-8.4%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.18+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.8%
@ 1.28-16.0%
Under
44.2%
@ 3.25+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Under
1xBet
3.25
Minija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.5%
@ 2.29-18.3%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.52+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Minija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
@ 5.10-13.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.12+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.12
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.7%
@ 3.70+11.9%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.22-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.22
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
@ 11.00-0.2%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.01+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.71
1.07
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.09
0.67
1.50
1.20
0.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.53
0.86
0.71
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.31
0.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.11
1.21
0.79
0.31
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
Under 0.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.0%
Under 1.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+13.1%
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1%
Under 5.5
88.2%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
-
+8.4%
Over 1.5
85.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
83.2%
1.40
1xBet
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.3%
Home or Draw
80.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
William Hil
1.02
-11.5%
Home +1 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.5%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.52
-
-
-
+18.3%
Home or Away
77.7%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-10.8%
Under 4.5
76.1%
1.26
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
1.19
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
-
-
-4.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →