Minija’s recent four-game winning streak fuels optimism for a home victory, while Transinvest 2’s recent struggles hint at a cautious approach. The model favours a home win, with a 52% chance, followed by a 22% draw and a 25% away win. The average goal output is high, 3.7, and the most likely total is three goals, occurring 21% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.2% probability.
Minija, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Transinvest 2, away against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 3.67 conceded. These figures suggest a tight contest where both sides may find the net.
The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals99%, Under 7.596.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals94.3%, Away under 3.5 goals93.7%, Under 6.592.2%, Away under 1.5 HT goals90.5%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals89.3%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minija win
52.5%
Avg Implied 81.6% · @ 1.12
Edge
-29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.14
Dafabet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied 12.2% · @ 7.49
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.10
Dafabet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
Transinvest 2 win
25.3%
Avg Implied 6.2% · @ 14.58
Edge
+19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
16.00
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
15.00
Dafabet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.07
1.79
2.31
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.55
1.64
1.17
2.00
2.00
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.20
1.14
1.71
2.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Transinvest 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Transinvest 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
2.29
1.25
1.25
2.00
3.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.67
1.00
1.67
2.00
3.67
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.8%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Under 1.5
11.2%
@ 7.50-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.08
Under
Betfair
7.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.7%
@ 1.31+0.4%
Under 2.5
29.3%
@ 3.10-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.6%
@ 1.86-0.0%
Under 3.5
50.4%
@ 1.84+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.74
Both teams to score
Yes
69.3%
@ 2.08+24.8%
No
30.7%
@ 1.67-24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.04
Superbet
2.00
No
Superbet
1.72
Unibet
1.67
Betfair
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%@ 14.67+4.9%
2-1
9.1%@ 9.97+2.7%
2-2
6.7%@ 26.33+4.3%
3-1
6.6%@ 9.93+0.2%
1-2
6.2%@ 36.33+4.4%
2-0
6.1%@ 6.43-3.7%
3-2
4.9%@ 25.33+2.4%
1-0
4.8%@ 9.17-2.1%
Minija goals ↓
Transinvest 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.0%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
1
4.8%
9.2%
6.2%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.1%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
4.4%
6.6%
4.9%
2.4%
0.9%
4
2.4%
3.6%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Transinvest 2 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Minija is 1.83 points better than Transinvest 2 in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Minija is 1.23 goals better than Transinvest 2 in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Minija is 1.89 goals better than Transinvest 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minija or Draw
74.7%
Avg Implied 92.1% · @ 1.01
Edge
-17.3%
52%
22%
25%
covers Minija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Minija or Transinvest 2
77.7%
Avg Implied 88.7% · @ 1.05
Edge
-11.0%
52%
22%
25%
covers Minija + Transinvest 2
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw or Transinvest 2
47.5%
Avg Implied 19.2% · @ 4.87
Edge
+28.3%
52%
22%
25%
covers Draw + Transinvest 2
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minija over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5
Over
63.8%
Under
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5
Over
36.9%
@ 1.62-18.6%
Under
63.1%
@ 2.02+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.02
Minija over/under 3.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
@ 1.90+30.1%
Under
22.7%
@ 1.70-30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.70
Transinvest 2 over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Minija, so a minus line means Minija give that many goals of a start and Transinvest 2 receive them. At -1, Minija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minija)
Minija -2
16.3%
@ 1.93-27.4%
Draw -2
15.9%
@ 3.62-7.3%
Transinvest 2 +2
67.7%
@ 2.55+34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.94
Betfair
1.91
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.25
Away
Betfair
2.80
Unibet
2.30
Handicap -1 (Minija)
Minija -1
32.3%
Draw -1
20.2%
Transinvest 2 +1
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minija)
Minija +1
74.7%
Draw +1
13.6%
Transinvest 2 -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minija)
Minija +2
88.3%
Draw +2
7.4%
Transinvest 2 -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.36
0.71
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.29
1.00
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Transinvest 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Transinvest 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.29
0.50
0.50
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.17-4.0%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 4.50+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 1.89-8.6%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.76+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Under
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 3.75-8.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.22+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.75
Under
Betfair
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.71
1.07
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.09
0.67
1.50
1.20
0.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.53
0.86
0.71
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Transinvest 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Transinvest 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.33
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.5%
Under 0.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.3%
Under 1.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.6%
Under 2.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Transinvest 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.8%
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.3%
Under 5.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.7%
1.05
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-11.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-
-
-
-
-4.0%
Home or Draw
74.7%
1.01
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-17.3%
Home +1 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.7%
1.31
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
-
+0.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Minija and Transinvest 2 have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and Transinvest 2 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and Transinvest 2 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Minija and Transinvest 2 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →