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ML Vitebsk vs Baranovichi Result & Analysis

Date: 03/09/2022
Time: 11:30
Final 4-2
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Vs
54%
22%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

ML Vitebsk win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L04L30W22D13L22D41W31W31W12LA·LID15/05H·NAF22/05A·OSI04/06H·ORS12/06A·SMO03/07H·OST16/07A·MOL23/07H·VOL13/08H·SLO20/08A·LOK28/08
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.531.571.431.881.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (15)1.731.531.571.431.881.62
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-533D11D40W05L15L25L04L03L13L24LH·MOL15/05H·VOL20/05A·SLO04/06A·LOK12/06H·SHA10/07A·LID16/07H·NAF24/07H·OSI14/08A·ORS20/08H·SMO26/08
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
3.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.671.122.751.432.57
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (9)1.003.561.403.400.503.75
vs Weaker (5)2.001.401.002.002.671.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.7%
No
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.8%
ML Vitebsk goals ↓
Baranovichi goals →
01234
03.5%3.0%2.7%1.3%0.5%
14.9%9.2%6.0%2.9%1.0%
26.3%9.1%6.6%3.2%1.2%
34.6%6.7%4.8%2.3%0.8%
42.5%3.7%2.6%1.3%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ML Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Baranovichi goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
ML Vitebsk is 1.21 points better than Baranovichi in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 0.50).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
ML Vitebsk is 0.83 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.04).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
ML Vitebsk is 1.46 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 2.88).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L02L10W11D11D10W40W20W10W10WA·LID15/05H·NAF22/05A·OSI04/06H·ORS12/06A·SMO03/07H·OST16/07A·MOL23/07H·VOL13/08H·SLO20/08A·LOK28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.600.710.431.120.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (15)0.930.600.710.431.120.75
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L10W03L14L23L02L00D01L03LH·MOL15/05H·VOL20/05A·SLO04/06A·LOK12/06H·SHA10/07A·LID16/07H·NAF24/07H·OSI14/08A·ORS20/08H·SMO26/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.330.251.500.571.14
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (9)0.332.110.202.400.501.75
vs Weaker (5)0.600.200.500.000.670.33
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L20W11D02L12L01L11D21W02LA·LID15/05H·NAF22/05A·OSI04/06H·ORS12/06A·SMO03/07H·OST16/07A·MOL23/07H·VOL13/08H·SLO20/08A·LOK28/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.930.861.000.750.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (15)0.800.930.861.000.750.88
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W30W02L01L02L02L03L12L21WH·MOL15/05H·VOL20/05A·SLO04/06A·LOK12/06H·SHA10/07A·LID16/07H·NAF24/07H·OSI14/08A·ORS20/08H·SMO26/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.330.881.250.861.43
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (9)0.671.441.201.000.002.00
vs Weaker (5)1.401.200.502.002.000.67
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
ML Vitebsk's squad is €11m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€14m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's attack is €5m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€6m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€3m vs €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's defence is €4m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€5m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
MV wins
0
Draws
0
BAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

ML Vitebsk vs Baranovichi · H/A from MV
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/22ABaranovichi Vs MV0-1

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs MV2-1
20/08/22HMV Vs Slonim3-1
13/08/22HMV Vs Volna3-1
23/07/22AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs MV1-4
16/07/22HMV Vs Ostrovets FC2-2
03/07/22ASmorgon Vs MV3-1
12/06/22HMV Vs Orsha2-2
04/06/22AOsipovichy Vs MV0-3
22/05/22HMV Vs Naftan0-4
15/05/22ALida Vs MV4-2

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/22HBAR Vs Smorgon2-4
20/08/22AOrsha Vs BAR3-1
14/08/22HBAR Vs Osipovichy0-3
24/07/22HBAR Vs Naftan0-4
16/07/22ALida Vs BAR5-2
10/07/22HBAR Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov1-5
12/06/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs BAR5-0
04/06/22ASlonim Vs BAR0-4
20/05/22HBAR Vs Volna1-1
15/05/22HBAR Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 43-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.60
HomeLDDWW1.71
AwayLWLWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%43%50%
AVG goals3.273.003.50
Over 1.5 %73%71%75%
Over 2.5 %73%71%75%
Over 3.5 %60%71%50%
Scored1.731.571.88
Conceded1.531.431.62
BTTS60%57%62%
Clean Sheet33%29%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.73
HomeDLLLL0.62
AwayLWLLL0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%12%29%
AVG goals3.933.884.00
Over 1.5 %93%88%100%
Over 2.5 %80%75%86%
Over 3.5 %53%50%57%
Scored1.271.121.43
Conceded2.672.752.57
BTTS47%62%29%
Clean Sheet13%0%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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