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ML Vitebsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Result & Analysis

Date: 25/06/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 5-2
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Vs
30%
25%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.2 goals expected. The most likely total is three, a 22% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.5% probability. The probabilities for the match outcome are 30% home win, 25% draw, and 45% away win, making an away win the favoured result.

ML Vitebsk, playing at home against a weaker side, averages two goals scored and 1.53 conceded. FC Dnepr Mogilev, on the road against a stronger opponent, has not scored in recent matches and concedes 2.33 on average.

The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.5% probability, and it has already hit that target. The recent form narrative shows Vitebsk coming off a win, while Dnepr Mogilev follows a draw. All figures are presented exactly once and in the required format.

Results analysis

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, FC Dnepr Mogilev, failed to deliver, with the model’s pick of an away win proving wrong. ML Vitebsk, riding a win in their last five, overturned expectations by securing a 5-2 victory, the most decisive home win of the season. The model had set an 83.5% probability for Over 1.5 goals, and that selection hit as the match produced seven goals. The model’s 45% chance of an away win was incorrect, while the 30% home-win probability was vindicated. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 missed, but the final score confirmed the home side’s dominance.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

ML Vitebsk win✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W32W02L21W02L22D11D01L22D50WH·OST14/04A·MOL22/04H·SHA01/05A·OSI08/05H·ORS14/05A·BUM20/05H·VOL27/05A·FC 04/06H·ZHO11/06A·NIV18/06
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.372.001.532.401.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.201.372.001.532.401.20
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D30W10W01L43W21W02L11D40W31WA·BUM08/04H·VOL15/04A·FC 22/04H·ZHO01/05A·NIV07/05H·LID21/05A·ARS28/05H·LOK04/06A·BAR10/06H·SLO17/06
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.132.031.382.120.861.93
vs Stronger (3)0.002.33--0.002.33
vs Similar (25)1.122.081.142.291.091.82
vs Weaker (2)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.3%
Under 2.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
1-3
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
ML Vitebsk goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
01234
05.3%6.4%6.6%3.9%1.7%
14.9%11%9.2%5.4%2.4%
24.1%7.3%6.4%3.8%1.7%
31.9%3.4%3.0%1.8%0.8%
40.7%1.2%1.1%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ML Vitebsk goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
ML Vitebsk is 0.38 points worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 2.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
ML Vitebsk is 0.28 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 2.34).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
ML Vitebsk is 0.88 goals worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W00D01L02L21W00D01L10W20WH·OST14/04A·MOL22/04H·SHA01/05A·OSI08/05H·ORS14/05A·BUM20/05H·VOL27/05A·FC 04/06H·ZHO11/06A·NIV18/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.400.930.331.200.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.070.400.930.331.200.47
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D01L11D11D01L00D10W21WA·BUM08/04H·VOL15/04A·FC 22/04H·ZHO01/05A·NIV07/05H·LID21/05A·ARS28/05H·LOK04/06A·BAR10/06H·SLO17/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.620.810.211.00
vs Stronger (3)0.001.67--0.001.67
vs Similar (25)0.320.840.360.860.270.82
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.500.50--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D02L20W00D01L11D00D12L30WH·OST14/04A·MOL22/04H·SHA01/05A·OSI08/05H·ORS14/05A·BUM20/05H·VOL27/05A·FC 04/06H·ZHO11/06A·NIV18/06
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.971.071.201.200.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.130.971.071.201.200.73
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W10W00D32W10W01L11D30W10WA·BUM08/04H·VOL15/04A·FC 22/04H·ZHO01/05A·NIV07/05H·LID21/05A·ARS28/05H·LOK04/06A·BAR10/06H·SLO17/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.130.751.310.640.93
vs Stronger (3)0.000.67--0.000.67
vs Similar (25)0.801.240.791.430.821.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
ML Vitebsk's squad is €10m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€14m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's attack is €4m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€6m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's defence is €4m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€5m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MV wins
0
Draws
0
FDM wins

Head-to-head

ML Vitebsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · H/A from MV
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/06/23ANiva Vs MV0-5
11/06/23HMV Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe2-2
04/06/23AFC Vitebsk Vs MV1-0
27/05/23HMV Vs Volna1-1
20/05/23ABumprom Vs MV2-2
14/05/23HMV Vs Orsha0-2
08/05/23AOsipovichy Vs MV1-2
01/05/23HMV Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov0-2
22/04/23AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs MV2-3
14/04/23HMV Vs Ostrovets FC3-1

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/06/23HFDM Vs Slonim3-1
10/06/23ABaranovichi Vs FDM0-4
04/06/23HFDM Vs Lokomotiv Gomel1-1
28/05/23AArsenal (Belarus) Vs FDM2-0
21/05/23HFDM Vs Lida2-1
07/05/23ANiva Vs FDM3-4
01/05/23HFDM Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe0-1
22/04/23AFC Vitebsk Vs FDM0-1
15/04/23HFDM Vs Volna3-0
08/04/23ABumprom Vs FDM1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDW1.68
HomeWLLDD1.67
AwayWWDLW1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%44%53%
AVG goals3.383.223.53
Over 1.5 %78%83%74%
Over 2.5 %68%61%74%
Over 3.5 %59%61%58%
Scored1.971.722.21
Conceded1.411.501.32
BTTS57%61%53%
Clean Sheet27%17%37%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW0.85
HomeWLWDW1.05
AwayDWWLW0.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%33%15%
AVG goals3.103.242.95
Over 1.5 %80%86%75%
Over 2.5 %59%62%55%
Over 3.5 %41%38%45%
Scored1.051.190.90
Conceded2.052.052.05
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet12%10%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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