The model favours an away win, with a 47% chance for Buducnost Podgorica to come out on top, 28% for a draw and 25% for Mladost DG to triumph. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% probability. Mladost DG, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Buducnost Podgorica, on the road versus a weaker opponent, averages 2.12 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5, with a 74.6% chance of hitting, and Under 3.5, with a 73.4% chance of missing. The match’s overall shape suggests a balanced contest where the visiting side’s slight edge in recent form and the higher probability of an away victory are key.
Results analysis
The match ended 1-3 in favour of Buducnost Podgorica, extending their recent run of victories and confirming the model’s pre-match pick of an away win at 47 percent. The final score matched the model’s expectation of an away triumph, and the 3-goal margin was comfortably within the predicted range. The model’s suggested Over 1.5, with a 74.6 percent probability, hit as the game produced four goals. Conversely, the Under 3.5 selection, at 73.4 percent, missed, as the total exceeded the threshold. Overall, the model’s call and the majority of its selections performed well, delivering a balanced and accurate forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost DG win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.07
1.07
0.93
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.14
1.00
0.91
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.67
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.40
1.79
1.64
1.88
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.62
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (17)
2.00
1.24
1.89
1.44
2.12
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.8%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
5.0%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
10%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.1%
6.4%
5.0%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Mladost DG is 0.77 points worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Mladost DG is 0.81 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Mladost DG is 0.44 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.29
0.67
0.67
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.86
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.00
0.60
1.60
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.41
1.11
0.44
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.67
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.86
0.79
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.82
0.78
1.00
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Mladost DG and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Mladost DG and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Mladost DG and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Mladost DG and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →