The model favours an away win, with the probability of 42 % for Dečić, 30 % for a draw and 28 % for Mladost DG. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.3 % chance. Mladost DG, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded, while Dečić on the road averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Recent form suggests Mladost DG is still searching for a win after a draw, whereas Dečić rides a three-game winning streak. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 %), Under 5.5 (96.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.5 %), Under 4.5 (91.2 %) and Away +2 handicap (89.1 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost DG win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.20
1.47
1.07
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.48
1.21
1.29
1.08
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.96
1.21
0.86
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
4.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Dečić goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.9%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.4%
6.9%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Mladost DG is 1.80 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Mladost DG is 0.60 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Mladost DG is 1.80 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost DG or Draw
59.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Mladost DG + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG or Dečić
69.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Mladost DG + Dečić
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dečić
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Draw + Dečić
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost DG, so a minus line means Mladost DG give that many goals of a start and Dečić receive them. At -1, Mladost DG must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost DG win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG -2
3.5%
Draw -2
8.3%
Dečić +2
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG -1
11.8%
Draw -1
17.6%
Dečić +1
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG +1
59.9%
Draw +1
21.5%
Dečić -1
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG +2
81.4%
Draw +2
12.1%
Dečić -2
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.56
0.36
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.29
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.3%
Under 0.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.1%
Under 1.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.2%
Under 2.5
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.93
0.86
0.57
0.46
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.68
0.86
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.3%
Under 0.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Mladost DG's squad is €1m less valuable than Dečić's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Mladost DG and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Mladost DG and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Mladost DG and Dečić have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat