Mladost DG are tipped to win this encounter, with the model assigning a 44% chance to a home victory, 28% to a draw and 28% to a Jezero win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% probability. Mladost DG, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded, while Jezero, on the road, average 1.08 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.8%), Home +2 handicap (88.2%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%). Both sides have recently come off defeats, with Mladost DG losing 1-5 to Sutjeska and Jezero falling 1-2 to Dečić. The match is likely to see a modest goal tally, with the home side holding the edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost DG win
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.20
1.47
1.07
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.48
1.21
1.29
1.08
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.20
1.08
0.77
1.08
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.3%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Jezero goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.4%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.4%
13%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.4%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.4%
4.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Mladost DG is 0.20 points worse than Jezero in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Mladost DG is 0.60 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Mladost DG is 1.00 goals worse than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost DG or Draw
74.0%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Mladost DG + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG or Jezero
72.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Mladost DG + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jezero
53.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost DG, so a minus line means Mladost DG give that many goals of a start and Jezero receive them. At -1, Mladost DG must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost DG win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG -2
10.0%
Draw -2
14.5%
Jezero +2
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG -1
24.5%
Draw -1
22.0%
Jezero +1
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG +1
74.0%
Draw +1
15.4%
Jezero -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG +2
89.4%
Draw +2
7.4%
Jezero -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.56
0.36
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.44
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.36
0.46
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.93
0.86
0.57
0.46
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.31
0.43
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.84
0.62
0.38
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Mladost DG's squad is €1m more valuable than Jezero's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Mladost DG and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Mladost DG and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Mladost DG and Jezero have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat