This Montenegro: First League match between Mladost DG and Mornar promises to be a closely contested affair, with neither side holding a significant advantage. Mornar's recent unbeaten streak in their last 5 matches, including a 0-0 draw against Arsenal Tivat, gives them a boost of confidence heading into this matchup. Conversely, Mladost DG is coming off a defeat, having lost to Jezero 0-1 in their last outing.
The model predicts a narrow away win for Mornar, with a 39% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a probability of 14.5%.
Mladost DG has been scoring an average of 1.25 goals at home, while conceding 1.17 goals per match. Mornar, on the other hand, averages 1.11 goals scored away from home and 0.67 goals conceded.
The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, occurring with a probability of 80.3%. In terms of match outcomes, Mladost DG has a 30% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 39% chance of losing to Mornar.
Results analysis
The win extends Mornar's unbeaten run to six games. In a shocking turn of events, the final score of 2-3 saw a total of five goals, well above the model's expected 2.3 goals. The model's selection of an Away win proved correct, as Mornar secured a 2-3 victory. The model's pick was the Away win, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals missed, with an 80.2% probability. The model's call on Mornar's Away win was correct.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost DG win✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.32
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
1xBet
3.43
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.35
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.93
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Mornar win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.16
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.24
William Hil
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.17
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
1.38
1.31
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.26
1.40
1.13
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.53
1.62
0.50
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
0.52
1.43
0.50
1.15
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.45+4.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.48-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
BetVictor
2.44
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.38+1.4%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.50-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.8%
@ 4.47-0.6%
Under 3.5
80.2%
@ 1.15+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
@ 2.04+2.4%
No
52.8%
@ 1.66-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.10
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
No
1xBet
1.68
BetVictor
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.67+7.0%
0-1
11.6%@ 5.72+4.2%
0-0
11.5%@ 6.61+5.1%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.33+3.2%
1-2
8.3%@ 9.00+3.6%
0-2
8.2%@ 8.75+3.4%
2-1
6.7%@ 11.75+3.1%
2-0
5.2%@ 13.67+2.2%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Mornar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
1
9.0%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.2%
6.7%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.8%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Mladost DG is 1.20 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Mladost DG is 0.33 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Mladost DG is 1.33 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost DG or Draw✗ Miss
59.1%
Avg Implied 58.0% · @ 1.58
Edge
+1.0%
28%
31%
41%
covers Mladost DG + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
BetVictor
1.60
Bet365
1.60
William Hil
1.57
Mladost DG or Mornar✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.6%
28%
31%
41%
covers Mladost DG + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Draw or Mornar✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.5%
28%
31%
41%
covers Draw + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.38
0.62
0.57
0.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.44
0.33
0.60
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.20
0.62
0.25
0.57
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.19
0.64
0.21
0.62
0.15
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
1.00
0.69
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.81
1.07
0.53
0.42
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.33
0.79
0.29
0.54
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.2%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
71.7%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Mladost DG's squad is €1m less valuable than Mornar's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Mladost DG and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Mladost DG and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Mladost DG's defence is €1m less valuable than Mornar's (€1m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
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Dečić
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat