This highly anticipated match between Mladost DG and Otrant-Olympic in the Montenegro: First League is finely balanced, with no clear favourite. The recent form storylines suggest that Mladost DG is coming off a defeat, having lost their last match 0-1 to Jezero, while Otrant-Olympic drew 0-0 against Petrovac in their previous game.
The model predicts a home win, with a 40% probability, followed by a draw at 28%, and an away win at 32%. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%.
Mladost DG have a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.23 goals and conceding 1.38 goals against opponents of similar strength. Otrant-Olympic, on the other hand, have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded in away matches against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 75.9% probability and Under 3.5 with a 72% probability. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
Results analysis
The win extends Mladost DG's run, coming off a defeat, but they bounce back with a 2-1 victory over Otrant-Olympic. The final score is a testament to the model's accuracy, as it correctly predicted a home win. The model's selection, a Home win, had a 40% pre-match probability, and it proved to be the correct call. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, also came in, with a 75.9% probability, hitting the mark. Meanwhile, Under 3.5, with a 72% probability, also successfully predicted the low-scoring match, hitting the target.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost DG win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.40
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.50
Dafabet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.08
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Dafabet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Otrant-Olympic win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.77
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.93
1xBet
2.86
10Bet
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.25
1.31
1.14
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.58
1.18
1.55
1.00
1.62
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.91
1.40
0.80
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.90
2.67
0.93
1.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.40
0.80
3.00
0.80
1.80
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.95
0.95
2.50
1.00
1.40
0.90
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.29+4.7%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.17-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.96+2.6%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.76-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 3.32+0.5%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.26-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.72+2.1%
No
44.6%
@ 1.96-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.72+6.2%
2-1 ✓
8.7%@ 8.75+3.9%
1-0
8.6%@ 7.40+2.9%
0-0
8.1%@ 8.65+3.3%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.53+3.3%
0-1
7.4%@ 8.02+2.2%
2-0
7.0%@ 11.00+3.2%
2-2
5.5%@ 12.33+2.1%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Otrant-Olympic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.4%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.6%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.1%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Otrant-Olympic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Dečić
1.42
Petrovac
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Otrant-Olympic
1.01
Mladost DG is 0.27 points better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.01).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
0.87
Mladost DG is 0.49 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Sutjeska
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Mladost DG
1.50
Otrant-Olympic
1.66
Mladost DG is 0.16 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.38
0.56
0.57
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.53
0.55
0.73
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.18
0.00
0.20
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.47
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
0.30
1.80
0.20
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
0.35
1.30
0.30
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Bokelj
Mornar
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Arsenal Tivat
Sutjeska