The contest between Mladost DG and Sutjeska is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 29%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 41%. The expected total of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% probability. Mladost DG, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded, while Sutjeska, on the road, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 5.5 at 96.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.6%, Under 4.5 at 90.6%, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.6%, and Away +2 handicap at 88.2%. Mladost DG’s recent form shows a defeat, while Sutjeska comes off a win, adding to the intrigue of this tightly contested fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost DG win
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska win
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost DG
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.20
1.47
1.07
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.48
1.21
1.29
1.08
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.10
1.81
1.06
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.89
1.26
1.90
1.00
1.89
1.56
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.70
1.80
1.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
10.3%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
4.8%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Sutjeska goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
1
8.1%
14%
8.8%
4.0%
1.4%
2
4.8%
6.6%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Sutjeska goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Mladost DG and Sutjeska are level in average points per game (both 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Mladost DG is 0.20 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Mladost DG is 0.60 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost DG or Draw
56.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Mladost DG + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG or Sutjeska
70.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Mladost DG + Sutjeska
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sutjeska
73.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Draw + Sutjeska
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5
Over
64.3%
Under
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost DG, so a minus line means Mladost DG give that many goals of a start and Sutjeska receive them. At -1, Mladost DG must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost DG win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG -2
3.0%
Draw -2
7.5%
Sutjeska +2
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG -1
10.5%
Draw -1
16.4%
Sutjeska +1
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG +1
56.7%
Draw +1
22.2%
Sutjeska -1
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mladost DG)
Mladost DG +2
78.9%
Draw +2
13.3%
Sutjeska -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.56
0.36
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.44
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost DG
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.93
0.86
0.57
0.46
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.38
0.50
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.63
1.40
0.50
1.22
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
1.40
0.40
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Mladost DG's squad is €3m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Mladost DG's attack is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Mladost DG and Sutjeska have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Mladost DG and Sutjeska have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Arsenal Tivat