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MOIK vs Araz Saatlı Result & Analysis

Date: 06/03/2024
Time: 10:30
Final 6-4
MOIK
MOIK
Vs
76%
16%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MOIK win✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı win✗ Miss
7.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D00D10W12L21W02L01L10W22D70WA·QAR02/11H·İRƏ09/11A·ARA23/11A·IMI07/12H·ZAQ13/12A·ŞAM26/12H·KAR08/02A·MIN14/02H·QAR21/02A·İRƏ28/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.071.771.151.591.00
vs Stronger (1)2.004.002.004.00--
vs Similar (20)1.551.151.601.001.501.30
vs Weaker (9)1.890.562.500.501.710.57
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz Saatlı) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L03L01L01L13L12L04L11D01L02LH·KAR01/11A·QAR10/11H·MOI23/11H·ŞAM07/12A·MIN14/12H·İRƏ25/12A·DIF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·KAR21/02H·QAR29/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.562.940.892.110.144.00
vs Stronger (10)0.203.300.332.330.004.75
vs Similar (2)2.503.005.002.000.004.00
vs Weaker (4)0.502.000.501.500.502.50
Clean sheet %0% (-30pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.5%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.6%
4-0
6.6%
4-1
5.0%
MOIK goals ↓
Araz Saatlı goals →
01234
04.2%2.0%1.0%0.3%0.0%
18.5%7.6%2.6%0.6%0.1%
212%8.9%3.4%0.8%0.2%
310%7.7%2.9%0.7%0.1%
46.6%5.0%1.9%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Araz Saatlı goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
MOIK is 1.33 points better than Araz Saatlı in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 0.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
MOIK is 0.93 goals better than Araz Saatlı in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
MOIK is 1.93 goals better than Araz Saatlı in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 2.96).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D11D11D01L00D10W12L20WA·QAR02/11H·İRƏ09/11A·ARA23/11A·IMI07/12H·ZAQ13/12A·ŞAM26/12H·KAR08/02A·MIN14/02H·QAR21/02A·İRƏ28/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.540.770.650.29
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (20)0.450.500.300.600.600.40
vs Weaker (9)0.890.221.500.500.710.14
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz Saatlı) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D00D01L11D02L01L00D01LH·KAR01/11A·QAR10/11H·MOI23/11H·ŞAM07/12A·MIN14/12H·İRƏ25/12A·DIF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·KAR21/02H·QAR29/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.061.250.111.000.001.57
vs Stronger (10)0.101.200.170.830.001.75
vs Similar (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (4)0.001.250.001.500.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D10W01L10W01L01L00D10W50WA·QAR02/11H·İRƏ09/11A·ARA23/11A·IMI07/12H·ZAQ13/12A·ŞAM26/12H·KAR08/02A·MIN14/02H·QAR21/02A·İRƏ28/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.571.230.380.940.71
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (20)1.100.651.300.400.900.90
vs Weaker (9)1.000.331.000.001.000.43
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz Saatlı) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L03L01L01L12L01L02L10W01L01LH·KAR01/11A·QAR10/11H·MOI23/11H·ŞAM07/12A·MIN14/12H·İRƏ25/12A·DIF08/02H·ZAQ15/02A·KAR21/02H·QAR29/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.690.781.110.142.43
vs Stronger (10)0.102.100.171.500.003.00
vs Similar (2)2.501.505.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.500.000.501.50
Clean sheet %12% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz Saatlı over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%-------✓ Hit
Home win76.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
MOI wins
0
Draws
0
AS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

MOIK vs Araz Saatlı · H/A from MOI
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/23AAraz Saatlı Vs MOI0-1

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/24Aİrəvan Vs MOI0-7
21/02/24HMOI Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan2-2
14/02/24AMingəçevir Vs MOI0-1
08/02/24HMOI Vs Karvan0-1
26/12/23AŞamaxı FK Vs MOI2-0
13/12/23HMOI Vs Zaqatala2-1
07/12/23AImisli FK Vs MOI2-1
23/11/23AAraz Saatlı Vs MOI0-1
09/11/23HMOI Vs İrəvan0-0
02/11/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs MOI1-1

Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/02/24HAS Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-2
21/02/24AKarvan Vs AS1-0
15/02/24HAS Vs Zaqatala1-1
08/02/24ADifai Ağsu Vs AS4-0
25/12/23HAS Vs İrəvan1-2
14/12/23AMingəçevir Vs AS3-1
07/12/23HAS Vs Şamaxı FK0-1
23/11/23HAS Vs MOIK0-1
10/11/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs AS3-0
01/11/23HAS Vs Karvan1-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.64
HomeWDWLD1.76
AwayWLLWW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%52%39%
AVG goals2.933.332.57
Over 1.5 %77%81%74%
Over 2.5 %59%71%48%
Over 3.5 %32%43%22%
Scored1.661.901.43
Conceded1.271.431.13
BTTS48%62%35%
Clean Sheet39%33%43%
Corners---
Cards---
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.25
HomeLLLDL0.44
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %6%11%0%
AVG goals3.503.004.14
Over 1.5 %81%78%86%
Over 2.5 %56%44%71%
Over 3.5 %38%22%57%
Scored0.560.890.14
Conceded2.942.114.00
BTTS31%44%14%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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